SNP claim the momentum in new independence poll
Only half of Scots now support the country staying in the United Kingdom, a new poll has found.
- By David Clegg, political editor
- Published in the Courier : 01.02.12
- Published online : 01.02.12 @ 09.55am
The Ipsos MORI survey of 1,005 people in Scotland showed opposition to separation fell from 57% last December.
But support for independence only increased by one point to 39% in the same period, narrowing the gap to 11 points.
The survey, carried out between January 27 and 29, used First Minister Alex Salmond's preferred question for the referendum he plans to hold in autumn 2014.
Voters were asked: ''Do you agree that Scotland should be an independent country?''
Critics have claimed the question is ''biased and loaded'' and would lead to increased support for the Nationalists. But this view does not seem to be backed up by the poll: while opposition to independence has reduced, support for the change has barely moved.
However, the large increase in 'undecideds' suggests the voting public have become more open to the prospect of an independent Scotland during the recent high-profile debate over the issue.
Mark Diffley, research director at Ipsos MORI, said: ''Our poll shows that outright support for independence has not shifted significantly as a result of these early skirmishes although it does reveal that opposition to change has reduced with more voters now weighing up the issues before deciding which side to back."
The survey also revealed support for independence is strongest among men, at 47%, and people aged 18 to 24, at 45%. Support was higher in ''deprived'' areas at 58% compared with just 27% in the most affluent neighbourhoods, the survey shows.
And despite the long wait until the referendum, two-thirds of respondents say they have made up their minds.
The SNP's referendum campaign director, Angus Robertson, said: ''This is an excellent poll, confirming that the momentum is with the independence case.''
Labour's shadow Scottish Secretary Margaret Curran said the poll showed ''most Scots know we are stronger working in partnership with our closest neighbour rather than making them our biggest competitor.''
Photo by Danny Lawson/PA Wire
10.44am - 01.02.2012 Callum - Dundee, Scotland Report This
To have such a signficant shift in opinion over such a short period suggest that people are open to positive messages abour independence rather than negative ones. Also amongst poorer communities independence is now seen as the only hope for improvement.
06.23pm - 01.02.2012 Gary - Dundee, Scotland Report This
A very interesting point is that of those guaranteeing to vote, 66% of those arguing for Scotland to leave will do so irrespective, compared to 80% of those favouring continuing th 300-year old relationship between us and England. Despite their protestations, this does not augur well for the SNP.
07.21pm - 01.02.2012 Trafalgar - Lossiemouth, UK Report This
What positive messages?? We've not been told anything yet on the big issues,, and do you really think the poorer communities will be better off?
01.07am - 02.02.2012 Jim Lambie - Airdrie/ formaly from Dundee, North Lanarkshire Report This
It is worthwhile being an independent Country, As the benefits to us are conciderable ie. Oil, £300 Billion to London All our paye,Nat Ins, Vat All Fuel Duty,2011 Crown Estates took £223 Mill from us and £180 Mill from all fines payed to our courts we make it, They Take it
02.11am - 02.02.2012 Siôn Jones - Abertawe, Cymru Report This
Opposition to independence does not mean support for the status quo. With support for 'devo max' running at at least the level of independence, the support for Staus quo is tiny. So by refusing to countenance any further devolution, Cameron will boost the cote for independence.
10.59am - 03.02.2012 Ronnie P. - Dundee, Scotland Report This
Just so you know, Sion, a vote for the snp doesn't mean support for separation.
02.52pm - 03.02.2012 Stuart Allan - Dundee, Scotland Report This
What positive messages Trafalgar? What about those that say Scots are more than capable of governing themselves in a prosperous country that utilizes all its resources for the benefit of its people. As opposed to the doom and gloom from unionists who appear to have NO faith in the Scots abilities.
10.12am - 05.02.2012 James - London, UK Report This
This poll shows that both sides have largely made up their minds already. The nats will only listen to positive messages, and the unionists will only hear the negative ones. The best decision for Scotland will only be reached if people start listening to both sides of the debate...
06.47pm - 08.02.2012 Fran - Fife, Scotland Report This
Aye Stuart, the lack of support for Scots companies over orders for the new bridge proves your point. And what government is to blame? Yes, the SNP.
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