An independent Scotland would have the second highest fiscal deficit of all the world’s advanced economies in the first year of independence, according to Treasury analysis.
Using global fiscal forecasts released by the IMF in its fiscal monitor, and the Centre for Public Policy Research’s (CPPR) forecasts for the Scottish fiscal position, Downing Street civil servants crunched the numbers to come to their conclusion.
Those forecasts expect Scotland to have a fiscal deficit of 5.5% in 2016-17, equivalent to £9.5 billion, or £1,760 per head.
This would be around £1,000 greater than the UK’s deficit per head in the same year, No 11 says.
Chief Secretary to the Treasury Danny Alexander said: “A range of independent experts, including the IFS, CPPR, Citigroup, and now Fitch all show that the broad shoulders of the UK mean lower tax bills and higher spending on public services in Scotland.
“Our analysis of the IMF’s data shows that an independent Scotland would have the second highest deficit of any advanced economy in the first year of independence and more than £1,000 per person higher than the UK’s deficit.”
Only the US would have a larger fiscal deficit than an independent Scotland in 2016, according to the analysis.
A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “An independent Scotland would be the 14th wealthiest country in the OECD, compared to UK at 18th, and according to the Financial Times would be among the 20 wealthiest countries in the world.
“Standard & Poor’s have also said that, even without North Sea oil and gas, an independent Scotland would qualify for its ‘highest economic assessment’.
“Scotland’s share of the UK debt is lower as a percentage of GDP than the UK’s when allocated on either a per capita or a historic basis.
“Over the past five years as a whole, Scotland’s deficit has averaged 7.2% of GDP whilst the UK have averaged 8.4%.
“Scotland has also generated more tax revenue per person than the UK as a whole in each of the past 33 years.”