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Salmond speech crucial to campaign

Salmond speech crucial to campaign

Here we are, then. It’s the final gathering of the SNP faithful before the independence referendum and the last chance for Alex Salmond to rally the troops for the next five months or so.

There is cause for optimism, we will doubtless hear. The polls have narrowed, will be the cry. But what chance is there of a Yes vote come September?

Well, that depends on whether or not you believe polls are representative of people. Catching up with friends recently I heard the complaint “I’ve never been asked” in almost every conversation.

Interestingly, that came from both yes and no supporters but there’s something else that keeps burning in the back of my mind.

There are lots of pro-independence community meetings going on. I ventured onto the Yes Scotland website to see if there are as many gatherings going on as is claimed.

Within 25 miles of Dundee, there are 11 coming up. Better Together have six. What does that show us?

Well, it certainly suggests Yes are mobilising better on the ground but it would be fascinating to know if that means they are covertly converting voters under the radar of polls and surveys.

It also shows that there is more Better Together activity than is often portrayed. I must admit to being surprised by the number of events happening in Tayside over the next month or so.

Again, it’s difficult to know how well either side’s events will be attended, which is some measure of success.

There’s also the fact that many, if not most, No voters will not bother with grassroots gatherings. In some ways that doesn’t matter for the campaign, it’s all about getting them to turn out on the day.

So, what does that tell us? Unfortunately not too much other than there is still a lot to play for.

With this in mind, it will be very interesting to see what tact the First Minister takes with his speech. He is preaching to the converted but there will certainly be one eye on the unaligned who may well be tuning in on the TV or picking up a paper to catch up afterwards.

He usually speaks well, and is brilliant at times, but also disappointed at last year’s spring conference with a lacklustre effort.

This time out, what he says and how he delivers it could be crucial.