By Andrew Arbuckle, farming editor

THERE MAY be a new support system in place but this has not raised any optimism in the farming community.

It is quite the reverse, in fact, if the results of a major industry survey are to be believed, with one third of all farmers reckoning they will leave the industry within the next five years.

“That is a significant figure,” said Professor Donald MacRae, of Lloyds TSB, who carried out the survey.

He added that the 30%-plus who indicated they will leave farming is the highest figure recorded in the nine years the question has been asked.

This latest negative indicator on the state of agriculture in Scotland comes hard on the heels of a poor year, where commodity prices fell, in some cases below production costs, where the weather made life difficult and where the major retailers kept screwing prices down.

Along with raised costs for growing crops and producing livestock, these were listed by the 300-odd farmers who responded to the survey as being the major limiting factors to their agricultural profitability.

On the other side of the equation, those surveyed reckoned that agricultural policy both at home and from Europe would be the major determining factors for future prosperity for farmers in this country.

Apart from policy, the respondents listed machinery rings and diversification as increasingly important to the future well-being of farming, with the former leap-frogging over NFU Scotland in importance in the survey.

Commenting on figures that showed reduced future production in all the main sectors of Scottish agriculture, Professor MacRae admitted there was often an inborn pessimism in the industry.

He was sure that a younger generation would come in and take up the slack left behind by those departing the industry.

However, if those surveyed are correct, then pig production in Scotland, which has already fallen by 40% in the past five years, will see another quarter of its output fall by the wayside.

Dairy farming will also experience a major reduction, with at least 10% fewer farmers in this part of the industry.

Interestingly, the dairy sector was considered the least profitable main sector last year but more than two thirds of those milking cows reckoned they were making a profit.

A higher figure than this was achieved by those who were producing cereals.

The survey also revealed very strong support for the Scotch beef and lamb labels, with Professor MacRae saying the acceptance level of these was as “high as it could be.”

After another harvest with problems over malting barley, the survey also threw up strong support for Scotch whisky to be made with Scotch barley.

There was, however, less support for several of the new components of the reformed CAP.

Two thirds of all farmers opposed the introduction of the Beef Envelope, which Scotland has introduced to help keep suckler cows and therefore beef production in this country.

Farmers were also opposed to the slicing of cash from their total subsidy payment in order to fund environmental projects.

Support for the overall single farm payment also fell, with Professor MacRae reckoning that this was due to the likely short term this support will be in place.