By Marjory Inglis, health reporter

TAYSIDE HEALTH chiefs heard yesterday services would be drastically affected when a worldwide flu infection breaks out.

Bosses at NHS Tayside have previously been told that it is a question of when, not if, a pandemic occurs and there has been an increasing level of planning for what would be a very grave scenario.

Top Tayside public health specialist Dr Julie Cavanagh told members of the full board of NHS Tayside—meeting in King’s Cross Hospital yesterday—that a pandemic would have a massive impact on the workforce and therefore the work capability of not only the health service but of other emergency services.

There has not been a worldwide outbreak of flu for nearly 40 years and Dr Cavanagh said the massive changes in lifestyle, including greater and faster movement throughout the world through air travel, would affect the spread of the infection.

She said a great amount of research had gone into pandemic influenza both nationally and internationally.

“A pandemic is a worldwide epidemic and when it comes it will most likely be caused by an emerging new strain of an influenza virus,” said Dr Cavanagh.

She said there would be “a lag time” between the new strain being identified and the manufacture of a vaccine.

Dr Cavanagh said all those planning for a pandemic knew it was not simply an NHS issue but “a population issue” with vast numbers of people providing all kinds of services likely to be affected.

“I think the likely impact is we would not be able to continue to offer full services as usual,” she said. “We would be able to offer something far different to that. All business continuity planning is about that.”

Dr Bob Rosbottom, a member of the board and a general practitioner in Dundee, said he was concerned that the public might ignore the very necessary messages that would be put out in the event of a pandemic because they had become immune to media “scare stories”.

But the doctor was very sure that a pandemic would have a radical effect on his work and that of his colleagues.

“I won’t be monitoring blood pressure or checking cholesterol,” he said. “I will be working twice as hard but working twice as hard on influenza. And I won’t be doing any paperwork.”

When Dr Cavanagh was asked what kind of changes could be made to prevent the further spread of flu when it arrived, she suggested one of the first things that would be cancelled would be the sort of gathering of NHS officials for business meetings such as the one she was addressing yesterday.

“It spreads the same way as any flu,” she said. “Pandemic flu won’t be any different. It will spread mainly through the air. It spreads from person to person by ordinary social contact, for example a board meeting like this.”

NHS Tayside chief executive, Professor Tony Wells, said there had been some media comment about the NHS looking after its own, giving the first vaccines to health workers.

Defending the wisdom of such action Professor Wells said, “The reality is they are the staff who will have to look after the people affected.

“It’s almost 40 years since we had a pandemic. It is likely it will happen again, it may not be soon but it will happen sometime. We can look to history to give us pointers.”