By Ewan Pate, farming editor

“AVIAN FLU is a low risk in UK poultry flocks but it is not a zero risk—that is a very important distinction,” immediate past president of the British Veterinary Association, Bob McCracken told The Courier yesterday.

This unflappable and matter-of-fact Northern Irishman has been monitoring the outbreak and advising the UK industry on precautions over recent months.

“There is a salutary lesson to be learnt from the position in Croatia, Romania, and Turkey,” he said.

“Three months ago they thought they were at low risk, but now they have the disease.

“However, the poultry industry here has been very vigilant and I urge that there is no let up.

“I have always said that if the disease arrives the success of our poultry industry will lie in detecting it on the first farm affected, not the 51st.”

It is certainly easily spotted in most types of poultry due to the high mortality, according to Dr McCracken.

Turkeys suffer 100% mortality very quickly, with hens at around 50%. However, there should be no need for panic if the disease is detected.

If it is spotted quickly the affected flock must be slaughtered and removed immediately and, provided there are proper biosecurity measures in place, it is very possible to snuff out the disease.

This has happened in previous isolated outbreaks.

It is worth pointing out that the poultry industry in the UK is very different to that in the countries where there have already been outbreaks.

“The majority of poultry sheds here are secure and wild bird proof—make sure they stay that way,” urged Dr McCracken.

“Unlike foot-and-mouth disease avian flu is not spread by air.

“It will only spread from bird to bird or via the poultry keeper moving around amongst the birds.”

The problems will arise if infection arises from wild birds.

“Most ducks show no signs of the disease,” he said.

“Tests on mallard have shown that they can carry the disease and spread it for 16 to 20 days before they are clear and uninfected.

“That is why I have been advising free-range poultry keepers to be ready to move flocks to fields away from watercourses if by any chance the disease was to arrive in wild ducks.”

“The industry was very alert to the risk from autumn migrations of wildfowl but the spring may also carry some risks from house martins and swallows migrating through the south east of Europe to the north west.

As to the possibility of vaccinating against avian flu, a complicated situation unfolds.

Injecting thousands of birds is a laborious task but it has successfully contained fowl pest (Newcastle disease) over the years.

Unfortunately, it is unlikely to do the same for avian flu, according to Dr McCracken.

“Newcastle disease is a para-influenza whereas avian flu is an influenza,” he said.

“A vaccination programme could make any outbreak worse.

“It could be fully effective or do nothing at all.

“The problem is that there are hundreds of different strains of avian flu.

“It is far, far worse than foot-and-mouth disease in this respect.

“Pharmaceutical companies could easily prepare large stocks which might conquer strain ‘one,’ but what if it is strain ‘ninety nine’ which strikes?” he added.

It would seem that if avian flu was to arrive on these shores the best reaction would be a swift recognition of the problem and then an immediate slaughter and disposal of any infected flocks.

It has worked successfully before in previous lower-profile outbreaks in the UK.