By Ewan Pate, farming editor

CONFIRMATION that the dead swan found in the East Neuk last week was infected with the H5N1 virus could have serious implications for Scotland’s poultry farmers, although it is far from certain that any domestic fowl will be infected.

At Cellardyke harbour yesterday NFUS president John Kinnaird called on the assembled media to keep the problem in proportion. That might be difficult, with the world’s broadcasters focused on an empty harbour where a dead bird was found 10 days ago.

There is no actual human health problem and there are no cases of infection in domestic poultry in the UK. These facts may become obscured, but that is the situation and the challenge is for Scotland’s 5000 poultry producers to make sure it stays that way.

Mr Kinnaird said, “ I have been speaking to poultry farmers and they are calm. They have been prepared for this eventuality and it is a case of good biosecurity and extra vigilance.”

Scotland has a total poultry population, according to December census figures from the Scottish Executive, of 14.5 million birds. The vast majority are kept in semi-intensive conditions where they are unlikely to come in contact with migratory birds. Although there are 5000 registered keepers, the vast majority are small backyard producers.

The commercial industry is concentrated in few hands The industry is worth £115 million each year to the Scottish economy. There are 800 million eggs produced annually, worth £35 million, and 125,000 tonnes of poultry meat worth £80 million.

The biggest player in the broiler sector is the Grampian Country Food group, with contract growers across the country and processing facilities including a major plant at Coupar Angus. Spokesman Alistair Cox urged a sense of perspective. “One bird has been identified in the wild bird population.

“We have had enhanced biosecurity in place for months now and we are as prepared as we can be. There have been general media inquiries today but we have referred them all to the advice of the Food Standards Agency, which states that there is not a food safety risk as long as poultry products are cooked and handled properly.”

Over the last two decades there have been several incidences of Newcastle disease, more commonly called fowl pest. Like avian flu this is a respiratory condition. Large numbers of birds were slaughtered in England, but there was no connection to public health.

There was an outbreak of avian flu in East Anglia in 1994, which was contained on the farm on which it was discovered.

There was also an outbreak on a farm near Montrose in 1959.

France is the only EU member state to have avian flu confirmed in a commercial flock. That happened three weeks ago and has not spread further. Following that announcement French Prime Minister Dominique Villepin announced a compensation package of £35.5 million to the poultry industry

However the French Poultry Federation estimates consumption has fallen at least 20% in the last month and that the industry has suffered losses of £90 million.

A similar trend in consumption has been evident in the Irish Republic, despite not having any cases of avian flu. The wholesale price of poultry meat has fallen more than 20% in recent weeks.

The Scottish industry will be determined to make sure market confidence is maintained here. The front line is being held by producers within the 10 km surveillance zone surrounding Cellardyke. Nine producers are registered as keeping poultry but the largest is Donald Peddie at Kilduncan, Kingsbarns. His unit, on which he keeps 22,000 laying hens, is on the edge of the zone.

Yesterday he said, “There is no restriction at present on selling shell eggs. The hens are all inside. We did have some free-range hens but stopped that enterprise several months ago, partly to reduce risk. We already have full biosecurity measures in place.”

Further west in Fife, Deans Foods have a total of 500,000 birds in units around Glenrothes and Strathore. Agricultural director Andrew Joret said, “Our business is based on egg production. We have free-range, barn and cage units as well as rearing pullets. We have a base level contingency plan which we are operating at the moment, and a heightened level which will come into effect if the threat moves any closer.

“If the free-range birds are to be moved inside it is relatively easy to do. Only around 25% will be outside at any one time and they all come in at night.

“We will just not open the flaps in the morning and they will effectively become barn egg producers. They have the same number of feeders and drinkers. They may suffer some stress the first day they are shut in but we will put in bales of straw and so on, to give them a replacement interest.”