By Bruce Fegen

Fife’s elderly population is set to soar by the year 2024, according to the latest projection from the General Register Office for Scotland.

Based on 2004 predictions, the forecast is that the number of 60-74 year-olds will rise by 35% from 51,235 to 69,159; those aged 75-89 will increase by 60.4% from 24,556 to 39,391; while the number of people aged 90 and over will more than double, up by 105.9% from 2371 to 4882.

At the opposite end of the age ladder an 11.3% rise is predicted in the 0-4 age range, from 18,715 to 20,822, but three other age groups are set to fall if the projections are correct: 5-11 down 0.2% from 29,420 to 29,356; 12-17 down 12.5% from 27,804 to 24,334; and the 18-59 sector down 0.8% from 200,499 to 198,907.

Overall, GROS is predicting a 9.1% increase in Fife’s population over the 20-year period, from 354,600 in 2004 to 386,851 in 2024. The strategy in the Fife Structure Plan is to assume a 5% growth in population from 350,000 to 370,000 by 2026.

The new projections are largely due to new assumptions about migration.

Back in 2002 GROS assumed that long-term net migration into Fife would be 800 people a year, but this has now been revised to 1500—the largest inward migration of any council area in Scotland. Recent house completion rates in Fife, which have risen to record levels over the last few years, are thought to be responsible.

The nearest figure to Fife is Edinburgh City and West Lothian, with a net gain of 1100, while in contrast councils such as Aberdeen and Glasgow show a loss of 1900 people.

The GROS projections will be presented to today’s council policy and resources scrutiny sub-committee in a briefing document on demographic change.

The paper says, “These changes reflect the fact that migration is the most volatile aspect of population change. In addition to migration movement within Scotland and the rest of the UK, there is now greater migration movement within Europe. This is particularly difficult to monitor given the free movement of people searching for work within the European Union.”

The report adds, “It is important to bear in mind that the largest uncertainty arises from the migration assumption, although there is some uncertainty arising from the fertility assumption, too.

“These two uncertainties mostly affect the projected populations of young working age and child age.”

What is not in dispute, however, is the “significant” rise in those aged 60 and over, and the attendant implications for health care and looking after senior citizens.

The briefing paper concludes, “It is clear from recent projections that Fife’s population of older people will increase significantly in the coming 20 years (and) this will have an unavoidable impact on the cost of council services to older people.

“The impact of demographic change on other key client groups, especially younger children and those of younger working age, is much less certain. Some flexibility may be needed in planning the delivery of services to them.”

Another paper examining the implications of the GROS predictions for the council’s budget will be presented to the sub-committee in October.