EXCLUSIVE, by Steve Bargeton, political editor

Controversial ship-to-ship oil transfers in the Forth estuary could result in huge explosions, air pollution—and a major oil spillage “typically” every 20 years.

That is the conclusion of the environmental impact assessment which the authorities have refused to make public.

The Courier has obtained a copy of the report by Aquaterra Ltd Environmental Services and Products, for Melbourne Marine Services Ltd, which assesses the impact of a range of possible incidents.

These include a mother/daughter ship collision, a high impact collision with another ship in bad weather, grounding, operational transfer spillage, shipping accident spillage, vapour release and fire/explosion.

Opponents of ship-to-ship oil transfers off the Fife coast have aired concerns over potential environmental impact caused by a spillage.

The report states that oil spills can result from such operations “typically” once every 20 years.

“The transfer operations have the potential to give rise to a spillage of the oil being transferred,” said the report.

“Such spillages are typically limited in size. Worldwide spill statistics show that most spills are less than one tonne and the maximum size is 10 tonnes.

“The likelihood of such a spill is typically in the order of once every 20 years.”

The report says that the likelihood of a fire or explosion on board one of the tankers is “rare”—“typically once in every 100 years...

“In the event of fire or explosion on board one of the tankers involved in the proposed transfer operations, significant air pollution can arise,” it says.

“Materials that could arise include soot and thick smoke and debris caused by any explosion.

“With this type of incident there is a strong potential risk of serious injuries and/or fatalities...”

The report concludes that the chances of structural damage to either the mother ship or the daughter ship in the event of a collision is “unlikely” given that the daughter ship would be at manoeuvring speed and that both vessels are double hulled.

However, rupture of one or more cargo tanks following a high velocity third party collision is considered “possible.”

“Conditions when third party collision would seem most likely are in periods of poor visibility,” says the report.

“The Firth of Forth can be subject to haar (sea mist) and low visibility conditions are most likely in late spring/early summer.”

The report warns that the Isle of May and the Bass Rock “present some important added risk in terms of possible collision.

“There are some particularly rocky islands and outcrops that are important wildlife areas and would present a serious threat to any errant vessel,” it said.

On the question of vapour release during oil transfers, the report says there is the potential for “odour” and even “air quality” issues.

Last week in parliament Mid Scotland and Fife SNP MSP Bruce Crawford asked First Minister Jack McConnell if he believed the environmental impact assessment should be placed in the public domain.

“On the simple matter of the environmental impact assessment that was carried out on the practice of transferring oil from ship to ship in the Forth, does the First Minister think that that information should be in the public domain, under the Freedom of Information (Scotland) Act 2002?” he asked.

Mr McConnell replied, “I am not sure what the legal position is on that. I am happy to take advice and ensure that the member has a written answer as soon as possible.”

Last night Mr Crawford said the assessment pointed to “potentially catastrophic” consequences of proposed oil transfers and said he would be asking the Executive to halt the project.

“It is no surprise that this document has not been placed in the public domain given its explosive nature,” he said.

“What it highlights is that there is a number of potentially catastrophic events ranging from oil transfer spillage to collision with third party vessels.

“I am today writing to Rhona Brankin, the minister responsible, drawing her attention to the potentially catastrophic risks and asking her to put a stop to this before the first drop of oil is transferred.”