By Steve Scott, rugby correspondent

SCOTLAND HAVE found beating Italy to be a tough enough assignment in recent years without the undercurrent of a future, pivotal clash looming large over today’s RBS Six Nations meeting at Murrayfield.

The unspoken part of today’s meeting of the two shades of blue, unspoken as both coaches claim they are not even thinking about it, is September’s meeting on neutral ground in St Etienne during the group stage of the World Cup, a match that will probably determine which nation progresses to a quarter-final.

Pivotal group stage matches in the World Cup are, it must be stressed, pretty important affairs, much more important than an annual Six Nations meeting.

In the last World Cup Scotland’s meeting with Fiji was just such a game, and the narrow victory prevented Scotland being plunged into the second division of world rugby.

Since then, Frank Hadden has hauled the team back to respectability and at least to the level they were at in 2003.

The two meetings with Italy this year will say a lot about whether the Scots will slip back down the rankings again or have the measure to kick on.

Hadden says he won’t even think about St Etienne until his team have dealt with Italy today.

“We can’t take our eye off this game,” he said.

“On Saturday night we’ll have some idea of what sort of impact it has on the next game, because it does certainly look like it will be extremely important.”

Hadden’s first experience of the Italians was “winning ugly” by 13-10 in Rome last year.

While there are accusations that the 21-9 victory against Wales two weeks ago was equally unattractive, there’s no apologies forthcoming.

“Let’s not get tired of winning just yet,” scolded the coach. “Italy made it extremely awkward for everyone they played against in the Six Nations last year and they’re on the verge of doing something special.

“We don’t intend that to be now but they’re not far away. Everyone is aware of how powerful their scrummaging is and they are improving the quality of their attacking play all the time.”

Few Scots in today’s record crowd for the fixture will expect their team to lose, but alternatively most Italians will state this is their best chance yet for the first elusive away in the championship—all except coach Pierre Berbezier.

“This is probably the hardest of all the away matches in the tournament—not just this year, but always,” said the former France scrum-half.

“In my 10 years as a player I never ended up on the winning side here.”

Italy’s forwards remain their outstanding strength and their abrasive style has been unsettling for Scotland more than most of the other nations since it became the Six Nations in 2000. In the scrummage they are particularly formidable, and it was notable that they took apart the Australians the week before Scotland struggled to cope with the same Wallaby front five in November.

Their lineout is sound, but it is an area Scotland will target after their success against Wales. The back row will miss the injured Josh Sole, who was Scottish-qualified before being capped by Italy and had a fine game at Twickenham two weeks ago.

Italy have a good centre partnership in Mirko Bergamasco, possibly the best player in his position in last year’s championship, and Gonzalo Canale. However, Italy’s fatal weakness lies inside them.

Going back to the veteran Allesando Troncon for the match against England was an admission that Italy still have a real problem at half-back. The latest incumbent at stand-off is Andrea Scanavacca, who finished off their glorious move for a try at Twickenham, but he doesn’t look like the answer.

In addition, Italy have problems on both sides of the crucial kicking game; they don’t have the reliable placekicker which is essential in modern international rugby, and they give away far too many penalty chances to teams that do.

Scotland have the most reliable in world rugby at the moment in Chris Paterson, even though he would hardly hold his place down as a wing if he wasn’t kicking with a 92% success rate. Most would still rather see him at 10, but in any position he is simply indispensable.

Phil Godman has another chance to silence that stand-off debate today. His style of playing flat and his penchant for neat chips and grubbers could be the unlocking of an Italian defence that has missed only seven tackles in their first two games. Either that, or he can give it to centre Rob Dewey or wing Sean Lamont who will gain yards against any tackler.

For all the clamour for tries after the near things against Wales, it really doesn’t matter if Scotland can at least gain parity up front and win the game through territory and the boot. Scott Murray should have the measure of the lineout and the front row held their ground in the scrummage in Rome last year without the bulk now added in the shape of tight-head Euan Murray.

Many are unconvinced about the balance in the back row and the continuing absence of Ally Hogg but the three starters have all had their moments in games. Chris Cusiter should be up to speed and ready to be crowned the championship’s best scrum-half again.

Italy are being posted as favourites in many quarters for this match, but that’s surely unrealistic. Even if they dominate the scrummage Scotland have more options to win by other means, and the back-line looks more dangerous.

That’s not to say the tries will start flowing. With the champion-ship and September’s World Cup in mind, a simple string of penalties to secure a win will do quite nicely.

Scotland—H Southwell (Edinburgh); S Lamont (Northampton), M Di Rollo, R Dewey, C Paterson (capt); P Godman (all Edinburgh), C Cusiter; G Kerr (both Borders), D Hall (Edinburgh), E Murray (Glasgow), N Hines (Perpignan), S Murray, S Taylor (both Edinburgh), K Brown (Borders), D Callam (Edinburgh). Replacements—R Ford (Borders), A Jacobsen (Edinburgh), J Hamilton (Leicester), A Hogg (Edinburgh), R Lawson (Gloucester), A Henderson (Glasgow), N Walker (Ospreys).

Italy—R de Marigny (Calvisano); K Robertson (Viadana), G Canale (Clermont-Auvergne), Mirco Bergamasco (Stade Francais), A Masi (Biarritz); A Scanavacca (Calvisano), A Troncon (Clermont- Auvergne); A Lo Cicero (L’Aquila), C Festuccia (GRAN Parma), M Castrogiovanni (Leicester), S Dellape (Biarritz), M Bortolami (Gloucester, capt), A Zanni (Calvisano), Mauro Bergamasco, S Parisse (both Stade Francais). Replacements—F Ongaro (Saracens), S Perugini (Toulouse), C Nieto (Gloucester), V Bernabo, M Zaffiri, P Griffen (all Calvisano), R Pez (Bayonne).