DUNDEE IS set to lose almost a tenth of its people over the next 25 years, while the population of Perth and Kinross soars, it was predicted yesterday.

A report by Duncan Macniven, the Registrar General for Scotland, on population changes expected across the country also shows a substantial rise in the number of people living in Fife and a small increase in Angus.

If Mr Macniven is right, the shift could spell trouble for Dundee.

The city has been struggling to halt a slide in its population for decades, but the 25-year estimate reckons there will be over 12,000 people fewer than the present 142,000.

The number of children and the number of people of working age would drop substantially, while there would be small increase in the number of pensioners.

Councillor Joe Morrow, city council economic development convener, said the long-term projections had been predicting a decrease in Dundee’s population for some time, and planning for services and for economic development had factored that in.

The council had already implemented a range of policies which had slowed the rate of decline and, while the Registrar General’s projection was for a 9% decline by 2030, Mr Macniven had acknowledged that it was hard to predict how many people might migrate to and from Scotland.

For example, Dundee had seen its population supplemented by immigrants in recent years, particularly from eastern Europe, Mr Morrow said.

Perth and Kinross looks set to become the fastest-growing local authority in the country alongside West Lothian. Both are expected to see their populations rise by 22%.

That would see an extra 28,000 people living in Perth and Kinross, taking its total to more than 170,000.

However, that includes a 40% increase in the number of pensioners. The area would actually see a small drop through natural changes, with net migration accounting for all the rise.

Fife would be expected to see its population increase by about 40,000 to just over 400,000, if present trends continue, while Angus would see a relatively small change, up 4000 to 114,000.

Big shifts in population, up or down, bring challenges for councils, the NHS and other services.

For example, a substantial drop in the number of children might put pressure on Dundee City Council to close more schools and the loss of working-age residents might make it harder for companies to find the staff they need.

But Perth and Kinross looks likely to have to face the problems of success.

A rise near the predicted level would lead to considerable pressure on planners to identify new areas for housebuilding, already a contentious issue in the area, and all the extra infrastructure that goes with such development.

The NHS would have to look at how it distributes its services across Tayside.

For example, a trend towards centralisation at Ninewells Hospital in Dundee might have to take into account the need to cater to more patients at Perth Royal Infirmary.

The increase predicted for Fife is also substantial and planners would have to consider how to add a number of people roughly equivalent to the population of Glenrothes.

Other major changes expected across the country are about 20,000 fewer people in Aberdeen, taking it down to 187,000, with Glasgow dropping 10,000 to 570,000.

Meanwhile, Edinburgh will continue to swell, adding another 70,000 residents taking it to about 540,000.

Mr Macniven said, “Scotland is not a single country demographically. Over the next 25 years we expect the population to increase by about 5%.

“But Perth and Kinross and West Lothian are likely to grow more than four times as much, while we expect that the number of people in Inverclyde and East Dunbartonshire will fall by about one-seventh.”

The estimates are based partly on expectations about the number of people who will migrate to and from Scotland over the next 25 years.

Mr Macniven admitted it was difficult to predict these numbers accurately.

If the number of immigrants turned out to be twice as great as thought, for example, Perth and Kinross would see its population increase by 28%, not 22%.

Another key finding is that Scotland will become an older country.

Out of 32 local authorities, 24 are expected to see a decline in the number of children and 18 will see the number of working-age people drop.

But every area will see an increase in pensioners.

Because their total populations will fall, Dundee and Glasgow are expected to see the smallest rise in pensioner residents, but Angus, Fife and Perth and Kinross will have increases above the Scottish average.

However, Aberdeenshire will have to cope with the most marked “greying” of its population, with a near-80% jump in pensioners, even when taking into account the change in pensionable age for women from 60 to 65 due to be completed by 2020.

The aim of the Registrar General’s report is to help councils produce structure plans to guide the long-term development of their areas.

His report said, “It should be remembered when looking at these results they are trend-based and do not take account of policy initiatives.

“It is also important to remember that projections become more uncertain the further ahead they go, especially for smaller areas as these populations are affected more by the migration assumptions.”

Finance secretary John Swinney, MSP for North Tayside, said, “Over the last 10 years, population growth in Scotland has lagged significantly behind the UK.

“An increasing population has the potential to boost Scotland’s economic growth and help our nation prosper.

“The government’s economic strategy recognises that without increasing labour participation among older people or attracting more people of working age to Scotland, adverse economic impacts are likely.

“The strategy also emphasises that we must ensure the benefits of economic growth are felt across the whole of Scotland.

“We must continue our work to give all of Scotland a competitive edge, to attract and retain successful businesses and the people they employ, to end decades of economic underperformance and to ensure that the projections for our population continue to be positive.”

Mid-Scotland and Fife MSP Murdo Fraser commented, “Perth and Kinross Council and the Scottish Government must take on board the findings of this report and prepare for the future.

“If Perth and Kinross is to see a population increase, then we must have a local infrastructure that can cope with this increase.”