ANYONE READING the results of the Scottish Government’s December survey would immediately come to the conclusion that the farming industry is in free fall.

The figures released yesterday show every major crop and livestock enterprise declining in either acreage or numbers, some to an alarming degree.

The poor sowing conditions last autumn largely explain a significant reduction in winter crops. In 2007 some 206,000 hectares of cereals and oilseed rape were in the ground whereas in 2008 only 170,000 hectares had been established in crop. Given the adverse conditions some might have expected a bigger reduction.

But it is the livestock sector which is showing serious decline in numbers. More alarmingly this is now settling into a long-term and accelerating trend.

The Scottish pig sector has been flagged up for some years as being at the point of losing the critical mass it needs to sustain a processing industry. The figures released yesterday show that there has been a year-on-year reduction of 15%.

In December 2007 there were 450,000 pigs on farms whereas a year later there were only 382,000. Breeding sow numbers have tumbled from 27,800 to 23,500 and in-pig gilts from 4400 to 4100.

Fife pig farmer and Scotlean marketing group chairman Andrew Peddie said, “These figures are worse than expected, nearly catastrophic.

“The only comfort is that all the signs in recent months show numbers stabilising and the smaller reduction in breeding gilt numbers backs that up.

“I hope that we have reached the bottom as far as numbers go but we need Vion, the only large scale processor in Scotland, to come up with a long-term plan for developing the Broxburn plant. That would inject some confidence.”

Sheep numbers have also dropped, this time by 7.7%, over the year. Anecdotal evidence over recent months has pointed towards breeding ewes pouring off the more remote hills and these figures back that up.

It will put added urgency into the present consultation on redesigning the Less Favoured Area Support Scheme (LFASS). Breeding ewes and gimmers in lamb now only total 2.8 million.

George Milne, the development officer for the National Sheep Association in Scotland said, “I am not surprised. We have been reporting to government all year on farm reductions and dispersals.

“It emphasises the urgent need for a sheep improvement scheme, which critically has to include a ewe lamb retention payment. With the current high price for prime sheep, too many good ewe lambs are heading for slaughter instead of being kept for breeding.”

Sheep numbers in Scotland have reduced by 30% since 1998. Cattle numbers are also down but not by quite such an alarming degree. There are now 458,000 cows and breeding heifers on Scottish farms compared to 470,000 in December 2007, a drop of 2.7% over the year.

Brian Simpson executive officer of the Scottish Beef Cattle Association said, “I feared the numbers might have been back even further. The price for prime cattle is up by 70 pence per kilogram but that rise has been eclipsed by increased production costs.

“There is little we can do about global fertiliser prices but nearer home there are costs that could be reduced. The Meat Hygiene Service is taking £70 million out of the industry and there is an immediate challenge to have these costs reduced.”

There is no respite either within the dairy sector, with cow and heifer numbers down 3.7% from 198,000 to 191,000.

Even the poultry sector, which has grown in recent years, has been thrown into reverse gear with total numbers dropping by 3.5% from 13.7 million birds to 13.2 million. Broiler numbers have actually increased by 3.8%, while layers decreased by 9.3%.

In more detail the cropping sector statistics show that winter wheat area declined by 22.4% from 114,000 hectares to 88,000ha while winter barley fell by 9.5% from 59,000ha to 53,000ha.

Winter oilseed rape, which was particularly difficult to establish last autumn, decreased by 11.7% from 33,000ha to 29,000ha.

NFUS president Jim McLaren said, “The figures on the winter cropping decline, while stark, are a snapshot in time reflecting very poor sowing conditions at the back end of 2008.

“Before putting all that unsown land into spring crops, growers need to be reassured that they will receive a price for their spring barley that more than covers the cost of growing it.

“That is why the continued intransigence being shown by grain buyers in issuing malting barley contracts for this spring is so infuriating and undermines the objective of establishing long term relationships between buyers and growers.”

There is also no reversal of the long-term decline in people on the land.

“The numbers fell by 2200 from 47,200 to 45,000. The decrease is 4.6%, with half due to a reduction in the number of occupiers.”