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More clarity needed on impact of crucial vote

More clarity needed on impact of crucial vote

It may be a good way off yet but the 2014 referendum on Scottish independence will be upon us all before we know it.

That is why I was pleased to see the Scottish Chambers of Commerce’s timely intervention into the debate on the country’s future this week.

As an apolitical body, the SCC will not express a view on whether it believes independence is the right choice for Scotland or not.

What it does know is that if Alex Salmond gets his way and secures a Yes vote then everything in the business garden will change like it or not.

It is also entirely probable that nothing will be the same again even if Darling’s No campaigners win the day and the constitutional status quo is maintained.

With that in mind, the SCC set out to gauge how Scottish businesses were coping with the political maelstrom gathering strength around them.

The findings were most interesting.

Almost 60% of the 800-plus firms that responded to the survey said that with less than 18 months to go to the crucial vote they did not know enough to take an informed view of whether Scotland should become independent or not.

An even bigger proportion of respondents, 70%, were clear that independence, if achieved, would affect their business at least in some manner.

Risk planning is a key element in any business strategy and being unable to quantify the potential commercial advantages or disadvantages of the two possible referendum outcomes is a serious problem.

The survey found firms desperate for more information on key issues such as taxation, Scotland’s status in the EU and clarity over which currency will be used north of the border should a Yes vote win the day.

Various fiscal and economic reports have already been published by both sides but it is clear the information is either not being communicated effectively enough to the business community or is not being fully trusted within corporate boardrooms.

More meat will be added to the bones over the coming months, but it will be the tail end of this year before the Scottish Government brings forward its white paper the blueprint for independence.

Is that really leaving enough time for firms to do their due diligence on the proposal on the table and make informed decisions?

SCC chief executive Liz Cameron has my backing for her call for both sides of the debate to do more now to provide answers to the salient questions which the business community is asking.

Firms need clear and robust information made available to them as soon as possible to allow plans to be drawn up for all eventualities.

The constitutional make-up of Scotland may be on the line in the months ahead but, equally, so is the wealth and prosperity of the nation.

Scotland, whether standing on its own two feet or remaining within the UK family, cannot afford for its wealth creators to become sidetracked for long periods from pursuing the growth agenda.Encouraging signs in the statsA welter of new economic data continues to pour out from various sources and much of it makes for encouraging reading.

The latest entrants to the party include the Ernst and Young ITEM Club, which this week marginally revised upwards its GDP projections for Scotland from a 0.7% growth this year to 0.8%, slightly behind the 1% figure for the UK as a whole.

Meanwhile, the quarterly Voice of Small Business report carried out by the FSB also found reason for optimism after confidence amongst respondents climbed to its highest level in a year.

In isolation each report may be of limited significance, but taken in the round it is clear that optimism is edging back into the Scottish and UK economies.

It may only be small steps but any signs of forward momentum are heartening after five long years of crisis and catastrophe.