Brexit is disrupting investment in Scotland but the country’s economic problems are even more deep-seated.
The latest BDO Business Trends report found that uncertainty surrounding the EU referendum and its outcome had knocked confidence.
However the group said the vote only partially explained wider dips in optimism and output.
“There is little doubt that uncertainty prompted by Brexit has resulted in disrupted investment in the Scottish economy, but the signs of a slowdown were already showing ahead of the decision,” said Martin Gill, head of BDO Scotland.
“The latest output and optimism figures are down considerably on June 2015 when the EU referendum wasn’t even on the agenda.
“The issue for business, therefore, is that the Scottish, and UK, economies were already facing difficulties even without the Brexit vote.
“These difficulties have, in all likelihood, been compounded by the vote leaving the economy in a very fragile state indeed.
“Of course negativity breeds negativity and businesses need to keep their heads and understand that while the situation at the moment in unclear, they are unlikely to notice any difference in their day to day operations for some considerable time to come.”
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BDO’s output index – a measure which looks at order levels for the next quarter – remained in negative territory in June.
The optimism index – which predicts growth for the six months ahead – also declined further, while the employment index moved to a two-year low.
The research found the manufacturing sector to be particularly challenged with firms reporting a gloomy outlook.
The manufacturing optimism measure came in at 83.8 in June, when a figure of 100 represents an even keel.
“Continued investment is essential as is growth if the Scottish economy is to come through this relatively unscathed,” Mr Gill added.
“We are at a crucial moment where we must be sensible in protecting the UK economy.
“We need a plan of action now that gives businesses the added confidence to progress with investment plans.”
A new report from the Bank of Scotland – also published today – is less gloomy about the country’s economic situation.
The group’s latest purchasing managers’ index found a slight upturn in the private sector in June – a move it described as a return to growth after two months of stagnation.
The growth it saw was driven by a third consecutive month of slightly higher business intakes.
The seasonally adjusted headline PMI figure – a single figure measure of the month-on-month change in combined services and manufacturing output – improved to 50.5 in June.
The measure had fallen below the no-change mark of 50 in May.
The PMI figures for employment levels show the private sector cut jobs for a seventh successive month but it said the rate of reduction softened.
The bulk of the cuts came in the dominant services sector, with the bank reporting that manufacturing firms actually increased their headcount in June.
Graham Blair, regional director, SME Banking Scotland said: “After two months of broadly stable business conditions, Scotland’s private sector experienced a slight upturn in June.
“Growth occurred at a slow pace, after a solid rise in manufacturing production was weighed down by an under-performing service sector.
“Regardless of this, June’s survey data was the strongest so far in 2016, which will be encouraging news for Scottish firms.”