Public health officials have warned Scotland must learn lessons for Christmas following a surge in coronavirus cases and deaths in the United States linked to family celebrations over Thanksgiving.
An expected sharp rise in new infections appears to have arrived in the US just two weeks after families came together for the holiday, with official figures topping out at more than 200,000 new cases and 3,000 deaths per day.
The number of new cases is up 30% from a fortnight ago, deaths have surged by more than two thirds and hospitalisations have increased by 19%. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) is projecting at least 332,000 deaths by January 2.
The dire outlook comes after contact tracers and emergency room doctors repeatedly encountered cases of people socialising outside their own household, and public health officials have pleaded with the public not to make the same mistake over Christmas.
“It’s a surge above the existing surge,” Ali Mokdad, professor of health metrics sciences at the University of Washington in Seattle told the Associated Press. “Quite honestly, it’s a warning sign for all of us.”
In Scotland people have been given a five-day window between December 23 and 27 to mix with up to seven other people from three households. However, the government has stressed that just because you can does not necessarily mean you should.
First minister Nicola Sturgeon said staying away from loved ones could be “the best Christmas gift” this year and advised people to “start thinking about reducing unnecessary contact” with others if they are planning a meet-up.
A common problem
The messaging is similar to that used in the US in the days leading up to Thanksgiving, with top disease expert Dr Anthony Fauci urging families to weigh up the risks of their plans and whether it is necessary to do everything the rules allow.
The main risk factors, travel and mixing indoors in poorly ventilated spaces, are also likely to be mirrored in Scotland and the rest of the UK, and experts have already called for a greater focus on maintaining household hygiene.
Stephen Reicher, professor of social psychology at St Andrews University and an adviser to both the UK and Scottish governments, said we should learn from the situation in the US that there is a “great big risk” at Christmas.
He said: “It certainly looks as if there is a steeper increase in infections coming about two weeks after Thanksgiving, both in Canada and the USA. And so it makes that fairly obvious point that the more we mix, the more we’re going to get infections.
“Of course, that’s exacerbated when infection levels are already relatively high – the more you have the virus, the more mixing is a problem.
“I think that what it tells us is fairly common sense, which is that the more we mix, the more trouble we’re going to be in. It’s not just a hypothetical, it seems actually to be happening.”
Jolly careful
Italy and the Netherlands are both considering following Germany into a hard lockdown over Christmas, following significant increases in deaths and infections.
Non-essential shops will close across Germany from Wednesday, as will schools, with children to be cared for at home wherever possible.
Downing Street insisted the Christmas relaxation in the UK will go ahead as planned, despite increasing warnings that it could lead to a rise in new infections.
Number 10 said on Monday that the public should remain “jolly careful” over the festive period but said there were no plans to review the guidance after a “very difficult year for many people”.
An alternative Christmas
Professor Reicher said we should “never say never” to a change of course if the number of cases begins to rise again suddenly but he believes the Scottish Government is more likely to stick with the UK-wide approach.
'It spreads like cigarette smoke.'
Professor @devisridhar shares her concerns about people gathering indoors over the Christmas period.
She reminds people to look at what other countries are going through.
What do you think? Watch GMB 👉 https://t.co/yyUUJmzswF pic.twitter.com/DcAIfiMz1l
— Good Morning Britain (@GMB) December 14, 2020
He proposed ministers should instead consider introducing an extra public holiday in the summer to celebrate an “alternative Christmas” as a way to encourage people to make the right decisions over winter.
“I think, with the prospect of things changing next year, we can envisage something different,” Professor Reicher said.
“With something like a promised extra public holiday, we can start planning for it and get the pleasure of thinking about it. We can all become Australian for the day and have a barbecue on the beach for Christmas.
“With those practical steps and the ability to start envisaging something, I think for the great majority of us the sensible thing is to meet up when it’s safe and not put our families at risk right now.”
Professor Devi Sridhar, professor of global public health at Edinburgh University, told Good Morning Britain that Covid-19 “spreads like cigarette smoke” and if you enter another home, “you’re probably going to get the virus if someone else there has it”.
She said NHS staff are exhausted and “begging people to be cautious” because they will be the ones working over the festive period to take care of people who get sick.
“Look what happened in the States with American Thanksgiving,” Professor Sridhar said. “You only have to read the stories, look at the figures, to see what happens if people aren’t cautious right now over the Christmas period.”