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Scots 50/50 on independence as Nicola Sturgeon floats autumn 2018 vote

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon

Scots are split 50/50 over voting for independence, according to a new poll.

The Ipsos MOIR survey found that, amongst those who said they know how they would vote and are very likely or certain to vote in an immediate referendum, half said they would vote for independence with the rest vowing to reject a separate Scotland.

Support for breaking up the UK has risen by two percentage points since the company last researched public opinion on the subject six months ago.

The poll, conducted on behalf of STV News, comes as Nicola Sturgeon refused to rule out a second Scottish independence referendum in 2018.

The Courier revealed last month that Downing Street is preparing for a Scottish Government request to hold another vote around August next year, close to the time-frame now being floated by the First Minister.

Pressed on the timing of a possible second referendum while on BBC Two’s Brexit: Britain’s Biggest Deal, Ms Sturgeon said she was “not ruling anything out”.

Speaking on the programme, she said she was not “bluffing” about holding another referendum and warned politicians in Westminster that Brexit is not “some kind of game”.

When asked about autumn 2018 being a likely date, she said: “Within that window. I guess when the sort of outline of a UK deal becomes clear on the UK exiting the EU, I think would be the common sense time for Scotland to have that choice, if that is the road we choose to go down.

“I’m not ruling anything out.”

Ms Sturgeon raised the prospect of another referendum after Scotland voted to stay in the European Union but the UK as a whole voted to leave.

While the UK narrowly voted to leave the EU, almost two-thirds of Scots who took part in the ballot wanted to remain part of the bloc which the First Minister insists gives her a “cast-iron mandate” to call another referendum.

The Prime Minister is preparing to trigger Article 50, the formal mechanism for quitting the Brussels bloc, later this month and SNP strategists see this moment as key to any potential announcement.

Writing in The Times newspaper last week, Ms Sturgeon said she had chosen to hold off exercising her mandate immediately to explore other options to protects Scotland’s place in Europe.

Ms Sturgeon has put forward proposals for a “differentiated deal” which could see Scotland remain part of the European single market through membership of the European Economic Area.

In January, former first minister Alex Salmond said a vote on Scottish independence could take place in autumn 2018.

The ex-SNP leader made the suggestion after his successor Ms Sturgeon warned the Prime Minister’s plan to take the UK out of the European single market “undoubtedly” makes another vote on the future of the UK more likely.

In the September 2014 referendum Scots voted by 55% to 45% to stay part of the United Kingdom.