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Comment: How fertile is Scotland for Vote Leave?

Michael Gove .
Michael Gove .

The UK’s Vote Leave campaign has realised Scotland exists.

Exactly two months after it was designated the official Brexit backing campaign, Michael Gove, its Aberdonian co-convener, rocked up to Glasgow.

He reckons the Remain vote is soft and there is a large number of people who could easily be convinced to cross the Leave box on June 23.

He’s probably right, if the anecdotal evidence I’ve picked up from the real world which exists outside the political bubble is anything to go on.

This has happened “without any politicians of note in Scotland” making the case.

That begs the question of why neither he nor Boris Johnson bothered popping up until 10 days before the vote. Gove, a charming performer face-to-face, danced round that particular question and never actually quite managed to answer it.

Perhaps it is for the same reason that David Cameron has kept a low profile north of the border up until this point at least.

There may have been a “Tory revival” at the Scottish Parliamentary elections, but that was down to Ruth Davidson doing a mighty good job of promoting herself as being independent of the UK Government.

In short, cabinet ministers coming to Scotland could be a liability rather than an asset, especially if Leave is looking to secure some grass roots SNP support.

Of course, while Nicola Sturgeon tells people to vote Remain, the vast majority of SNP supports will do just that. Indeed, with the leaders of all of Scotland’s main parties in favour of staying, there’s not much chance of the country swinging to Leave.

But which side will inspire its voters to actually turn out if it’s a rainy June day a week on Thursday? I suspect the answer will please Mr Gove.