Capitalise on your honeymoon period or wait and see how your opponents next tear themselves apart. That’s the conundrum facing Theresa May just now as she weighs up the pros and cons of a snap general election.
Labour is all at sea. It is in the midst of a drawn out, damaging leadership battle. The MPs don’t like the leader and a great many of the members don’t like the MPs. The party could well split. The government is currently 14 points ahead of the opposition.
Previously, the warning against a quick poll was that Ukip could gain seats, but given its current leadership crisis is leaving it rudderless, that argument looks pretty weak now.
So why not find the two-thirds of MPs you need to call a quick-fire vote and gain an 18 month extension of your time in office?
Gordon Brown would probably testify that holding off can come back to haunt you.
Go back a little further with political leaders, though, and Napoleon sounds a warning.
“Never interfere with your enemy when he is making a mistake.”
Would it be better for May to sit back and watch her opponents destroy themselves or move in and try to strike a potentially fatal blow?
Will giving something for the opposition to unite against – another Tory government – actually gee them up?
May has done a good job of keeping a lid on election expectations but they will only grow as her largest threats keep shrinking to the infinitesimal.
