The day Gordon Brown walked out of Downing Street, having served his last day as Prime Minister, with his wife and young family by his side is etched in my memory.
I cried my eyes out, uncontrollably.
Partly through activist exhaustion no doubt. But mostly it was just a deep sense of sadness.
This picture represented the end of an era. Thirteen years of a Labour government that had a proud record in power. I believed that then and I still believe it now.
Broadly speaking, the country was a fairer, more tolerant, inclusive and united place than it is now.
So you might think the demise of a Tory PM would have me popping corks in joyous celebration.
Yet when Boris Johnson finally succumbed and resigned, I felt fear and more than a little trepidation.
Will Conservative leadership contest take us further to the right?
There have been three Conservative Prime Ministers since Gordon Brown left office 12 years ago.
And as each one departed they were replaced by someone with views and policies a little further to the right.
Most recently this culminated in PM Johnson whose modus operandi is, was, forever will be “divide and rule”.
So what next?
Could it move further to the right again? And if so, just how much more polarised can we become?
Do Rishi Sunak and Liz Truss have any plans to govern in the interest of the whole country, rather than just the chunk that votes for their party?
I’ve been studying the Conservative leadership contest and the signs aren’t good.
A proper fresh start means a General Election
The main dividing line between the two candidates is over tax and the broader economy.
Liz Truss wants tax cuts now to support struggling families and businesses.
Rishi Sunak wants to cut taxes later, pointing to the mounting debt of the pandemic.
On energy bills, Liz Truss supports suspending green levies on energy bills while Rishi Sunak is now advocating removing VAT from bills – a policy he opposed just a few months ago.
Neither will do anything to address the rising wholesale cost of fuel.
Liz Truss is seen as more in touch, likeable, trustworthy & performed better on the issues. Snap YouGov poll of 507 Conservative party members who watched last night’s BBC debate shows @trussliz is seen as the better performer with 50% saying so to Rishi Sunak’s 39%. #Liz4Leader pic.twitter.com/hPYMdFYtTL
— Iain Duncan Smith MP (@MPIainDS) July 26, 2022
This horse trading might on one level be welcome, if it leads to the new PM doing more to support families ahead of the winter. But it’s an awful way to govern.
How much of the manifesto that the Conservatives stood on – and received an 80-seat majority for – in 2019 still stands under the next Prime Minister?
If they stick with it, is it really the fresh start we’ve been promised?
If they abandon it, where’s the democratic mandate for the decisions they take?
The case for a general election is indisputable.
Sunak’s wealth may hold him back
Rishi Sunak is a polished, slick and effective communicator.
Much has been made of his private wealth and the non-domiciled tax status of his wife.
It was interesting to see the audience in the BBC TV debate give some rare applause for his defence of his family’s wealth, pointing to the hard work and sacrifices they had made to get on.
That’s a very British success story and I think it’s one that most people respect rather than envy in the first instance.
But the problem for the former Chancellor is two-fold.
Firstly the public, knowing he’s filthy rich, want to know he and his family pay their fair share of taxes.
That will be a significant part of gaining their trust and respect as PM.
If he’s asking us to pay more national insurance and to carry the burden of pandemic debt, we need to be convinced – and we’re not – that people with great wealth are contributing significantly, proportionately and fairly.
The second hurdle he faces is demonstrating that he actually understands what real life is like for families across the country. The people who couldn’t dream of spending £500 on shoes or £3k on a suit.
Rishi Sunak borrowed a Sainsburys worker's Kia Rio for his petrol station photo shoot, according to sources pic.twitter.com/jJXHzRBBNh
— John Stevens (@johnestevens) March 24, 2022
Remember the pictures of Rishi Sunak filling a car up after he cut fuel duty during the last budget?
Much of the ridicule was focused on the fact he’d borrowed the red Kia to look more like a man of the people.
But for me it was the way he was standing.
Who doesn’t stare at the pump as the price ticks up? I bet he’s never tried to land it on a perfect £20.
Is Continuity Boris the best Liz Truss can do?
Liz Truss has had far less public scrutiny, which is a worry because she is currently the runaway favourite to win the contest.
She’s considered far more popular among Conservative activists, the only people who get to decide who the next Prime Minister will be.
This is down, in part, to her perceived success securing trade deals and her current work as Foreign Secretary (although you’d be forgiven for supposing an awful lot of support is banked on the anyone but Rishi vote).
Liz Truss appears to be continuity Boris, with more culture wars and Rwandan detentions and a little sprinkle of anti-trade union laws on the top.
These issues might play well for the base. But they are light years away from the focus on family budgets, the NHS and climate change that the country is crying out for.
This contest might constitute “good telly” but that’s about all the positivity I can muster.
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