Amid all the incompetence, mudslinging, and disinformation of the SNP leadership campaign, one absolute truth has emerged: if party chief executive Peter Murrell tries to hide something then you definitely want to see it.
This is true of the leadership election process, which is turning out to be about as transparent as a presidential election in Zimbabwe.
And it is true of the SNP membership figures, which have been shielded with such determination that all three leadership candidates have now had to demand their release.
These and a host of other issues present a major, probably insurmountable, challenge for Nicola Sturgeon’s successor.
This is not a question of personality or policy. The leadership contenders seem all too willing to embarrass themselves in these respects without the need to go over it all again here.
It is instead about the party itself – the SNP – which has rapidly evolved from a well-oiled machine of victory to a halting, rusting scrap, now juddering to a sudden and undignified stop.
Peter Murrell now strangely silent on SNP numbers
To begin with, there is the case of the membership numbers.
Peter Murrell used to get SNP officials to shout about these at party conferences, until they suddenly stopped.
And now they have tried desperately hard not to say at all.
As we have now seen, the only possible reason for this is that the membership has dwindled to such an extent that to reveal the number would be a humiliation.
It is a measurable statistic of the SNP’s decline (a drop of 50,000 from its peak, and a loss of almost 10,000 in the first three months of this year, if you were wondering).
This really matters, because members are the foot soldiers of any political party.
They are the people who deliver leaflets, knock on doors, and donate to campaigns.
Yes, the SNP might be able to rely on some goodwill from non-aligned independence supporters (though how much in current circumstances must surely be up for debate).
NEW: The SNP has 72,186 members, the party's ruling national executive committee has been told
That's down from almost 104,000 in 2021, the last year that numbers were previously available for
— Kieran Andrews (@KieranPAndrews) March 16, 2023
But with fewer boots on the ground the party’s ability to campaign will be much diminished.
Questions over SNP’s future financial outlook
The state of the SNP’s finances is equally opaque and, one might assume, equally embarrassing.
Under Peter Murrell’s stewardship, around £600,000 has seemingly gone unaccounted for in the SNP books, while he has also had to provide his employer with an interest-free loan of more than £100,000 from his own private funds.
Assuming there is no dubious conduct involved, this does not suggest evidence of a well-run party, or one that is in particularly good financial health.
That means the SNP is likely to have less money to spend on digital campaigns, leaflets, or to support candidates in target seats, all while its rivals are raising more money than ever.
Certainly, Sturgeon will likely be the last SNP leader to ride around Scotland on a helicopter for some years to come.
This all amounts to a grim picture for the SNP.
It is now a party of limited resources and select means.
Were an election to be called tomorrow, one might question whether it would have the funds, or the members to conduct a serious, nationwide campaign at scale.
Should the party lose significant numbers of seats at the next General Election – as currently seems likely – the concurrent loss of money will only add to the party’s financial woes.
The impossibility of a referendum in the medium term, coupled with the spectacle of SNP infighting in the leadership election, is also unlikely to stem the decline in members.
What place for Peter Murrell in SNP’s future?
This is a major fall from grace for Peter Murrell, who will – for all the tiptoeing around the subject by the SNP leadership contenders – surely be one of the first of the old guard to be shown the door once a new leader is in place.
But as is always the case in politics, it was not always thus.
Murrell played a decisive role in turning the SNP into an election-winning machine, building the party function and professionalising its operations to such an extent that it simply steamrollered its rivals.
He developed the SNP’s use of microtargeting, creating data on voters in key areas, ensuring they could be targeted with specific messages or get-out-the-vote drives.
Certainly, his electoral record – particularly the SNP majority at the Scottish Parliament in 2011 – is unlikely to be surpassed.
That, however, is very much in the past.
"I think that Peter Murrell, effectively being in charge of the contest, I think many people would consider that to be a conflict of interest."
Nicola Sturgeon's husband being in charge of the SNP leadership contest will be a 'conflict of interest,' says @AshReganSNP. pic.twitter.com/dOEnrVn5Z0
— Times Radio (@TimesRadio) March 12, 2023
Whoever replaces Sturgeon – assuming Murrell can actually successfully manage the leadership election to a consensual conclusion – will inherit a party on its knees.
The SNP is now lacking in organisation, lacking in money and, one would imagine shortly, will be lacking its once formidable chief executive.
Without the once well-oiled machine of the SNP behind them, the new party leader will find their task all the harder.
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