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High stakes in a political week that felt like a generation

Prime Minister Theresa May meets First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at Bute House last July.
Prime Minister Theresa May meets First Minister Nicola Sturgeon at Bute House last July.

If, as Harold Wilson famously said, a week is a long time in politics then the first few days of this week were almost equivalent to a political generation.

That’s not what it used to be, mind.

The timing of the Theresa May’s response to the demand for a second independence referendum was fascinating on multiple levels.

Why did it three full days to reply when, as The Courier revealed last month, Downing Street has been gaming out how to deal with such a request for a while now?

The Scotland Office planned to be releasing a major briefing on jobs. Why was it axed? Why was the announcement an odd affair involving ITV’s Robert Peston being invited into Downing Street so the Prime Minister could refuse to answer his obvious question of if “not now”, then when?

Why not come to Parliament to make your views known? Especially when an Urgent Question was almost tabled to the Commons on Tuesday.

Fighting a second independence referendum is the biggest gamble of Nicola Sturgeon’s political life but it also has the potential to end May’s career.

That is why the Prime Minister is trying to kill independence with kindness. Stick with this line of thought, it’s not as off the wall as it seems.

“Not now” is not the same as not ever and that is the carrot being dangled in front of the public. The First Minister doesn’t want another vote now either but it is likely that many floating voters, the ones who would decide the next ballot, will see May’s actions as sensible given the imminent Brexit negotiations.

No 10 then wants to kill another referendum in the long grass. It hopes that if you postpone it for long enough then it simply won’t happen.

If it works, and it is a big if, then it will be an act of political genius. Remember this, though. If this week has felt like a long time, imagine what the next two years could bring.