Beware the local voter.
That is the message sitting MPs should have drilled into their thinking as we begin the short-but-maybe-not-so-sweet seven week general election campaign.
The national polls are not important in your constituency.
Yes, they may give a broad indication of which party is going to emerge victorious across Scotland and the UK as a whole, but they mean very little on the doorsteps of your patch.
A curious combination of national mood and micro-local issues can make or break a campaign.
Seen as not being on the side of parents or patients with that local school or hospital under threat?
Get your coat, you’re out in the cold.
Fail to hold surgeries? Not bothered to move to the constituency? Managed to create an image of being lazy or enjoying the London life a bit much?
Your peg is possibly looking a bit shoogily at this moment in time.
Experienced campaigners know all of this. There are seven SNP MPs who have won multiple elections as candidates and will have dusted down the battle plans.
Their opponent’s strategies are an interesting mix.
Jo Swinson, the former Liberal Democrat minister, is attempting to make a comeback in her old constituency of East Dunbartonshire and will be trading on name recognition as she tries to unseat John Nicolson, who ousted her a couple of years ago.
The Libs are also optimistic about their chances in North East Fife as they chase the pro-EU and pro-UK vote but they don’t have a candidate with the local ties – or personality – of Willie Rennie. He won the seat at Holyrood, but won’t be taking on Stephen Gethins, who has worked hard locally since being elected.
All of this is why the Tories are confident of picking up additional seats in June. Many of their target seats seem unrealistic but a few could fall.
Those who take voters for granted will be the MPs who receive a shock.