Scotland being pulled out of the EU by the rest of the UK would not be enough to trigger a second independence referendum, according to the country’s leading pollster.
Professor John Curtice, of Strathclyde University, said opinion polls suggest a so-called Brexit would increase support for a Yes vote but it would still be within the crucial margin of error.
Nicola Sturgeon has said such a scenario would “almost certainly” trigger a constitutional rerun and confirmed on Monday she would make another push for independence if a “range of polls” show most Scots want a second referendum.
Professor Curtice said: “We have had three polls where people have been asked what they would vote if there was an independence referendum now and if the UK voted to leave the EU.
“It moved from 47/53 in favour of No to around 52% or 53% in favour of independence. If people’s answers to that hypothetical are correct, you might get evidence of a sustained majority but it is not going to get you anywhere close to the 60% which we have been told in the past is what the SNP want.”
The SNP will spend the summer trying to convince No voters to back their plan for Scotland to leave the UK, which Professor Curtice said was indicative of a “rethink of the campaign”, making a quick vote after June’s EU referendum unlikely.
Asked if another Conservative majority in the 2020 general election could cause a massive poll swing, he said: “Not unless the SNP makes a better case.
“They need to sort themselves out on the currency and convince people of the case for independence. These things are yet to be achieved.”
Ms Sturgeon fleshed out how her party would gauge a swing in opinion amongst Scots towards breaking away from the UK in a BBC radio interview on Monday.
She said there needed to be “clear and sustained evidence” of majority support for independence that was more than a “flash in the pan”.
“We would have to see in a range of polls over a period of time, that independence had become the preferred option of a majority,” she added.
The First Minister also argued that people should be “allowed to change their mind” in a democracy and politicians should not block that.
In Sunday’s final television face-off between the main party leaders before Holyrood’s election, the SNP leader was accused of being “anti-democratic” for not respecting the 2014 result.
Speaking on Radio 4 on Monday, she said: “If there’s no shift in opinion from that we saw expressed in 2014, I don’t think we have the right to propose a second independence referendum.
“But on the other side of that argument, if we do see a shift in opinion, if independence becomes the clear preferred option of a majority of people in Scotland then I don’t think it would be right for politicians to stand in the way of that.”
She added if people back the SNP on Thursday “they are not voting for Scotland to be independent”, but for its policies on health, education and the economy.
