Nicola Sturgeon signalled that Dundee is likely to stay in tier three measures for several weeks when she was quizzed by MSPs on her handling of the coronavirus crisis.
At Holyrood’s Covid committee, the first minister said she would be “very surprised” if restrictions would be relaxed in the city after just a week, warning that an improvement would need to be seen over “a slightly longer period”.
Ms Sturgeon said there would have to be a “significant reduction” in Dundee case numbers and positive tests before there could be progress on opening up the city.
Her remarks came as Chief Medical Officer Dr Gregor Smith said analysis of Dundee’s situation suggested the virus could have a “disproportionate impact” on hospital admissions and intensive care “not just in the immediate future but four to six weeks in advance”.
Appearing in front of MSPs, Ms Sturgeon also revealed she was considering putting in place legally enforceable limits on travel restrictions.
People in level three areas of Scotland are advised to avoid leaving their local authority boundaries unless essential, while those in areas with lower levels are told to “minimise unnecessary journeys between areas in different levels”.
Dundee was placed in level three from Monday this week, the second-most severe category, which means alcohol can no longer be sold indoors or outdoors, with businesses closing at 6pm.
Shona Robison, SNP MSP for Dundee City East, asked the first minister what improvements in the coronavirus indicators would have to be observed for restrictions to be eased in the city.
‘In the level three box’
Ms Sturgeon replied that the Scottish Government would look at the Covid data over the next couple of days, but added that in general terms it would not be expected for a council area to change level after just one week.
“I would be very surprised if Dundee was to move out of level three after just a week in level three,” Ms Sturgeon added.
The first minister said that when the decision to put Dundee into tier three was made last week there were 185 cases per 100,000 in the city and a positive test rate of 8%.
Those statistics put Dundee “quite firmly in the level three box”, Ms Sturgeon said.
“In order for level two to open up again you would need to see a significant reduction in both of those indicators as well as the overall situation,” Ms Sturgeon said.
“We would want to make sure that was a reduction that was sustainable and a direction of travel that was going to be sustained.
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“Hopefully we will see, when we look at the indicators this week, some signs of stabilisation or hopefully some improvement in Dundee. I can’t say that with any certainty right now.
“We would need to see that over a slightly longer period before we would safely be able to take the decision to move down a level that would involve a significant opening up and therefore a higher risk of transmission.”
She warned that the recent increase of new cases and the spike in deaths to 50 in the last 24 hours would have to be fed into her calculations over the coming days.
Dr Smith said there have been “very detailed” discussions with public health teams on the Dundee restrictions, which took into account the way people moved around the surrounding area.
He added that the virus’s potential impact on local hospitals and intensive care would last for several weeks.
“Projections that we had for Dundee showed there was likely to be a disproportionate impact particularly on general hospital admissions with some potential for quite significant impact also affecting ICU beds – not just in the immediate future but four to six weeks in advance,” Dr Smith said.
“All these measures are designed to prevent that likelihood becoming true. We continue to monitor and track that just now.”
Travel restrictions
The prospect of legal backing to travel restrictions were revealed when Stuart McMillan, SNP MSP for Greenock and Inverclyde, asked why his area has been placed into level three despite having lower levels of prevalence than other parts of the NHS Greater Glasgow and Clyde health board area.
The First Minister said there are still some questions over whether virus levels in Inverclyde are “sustainably low”, while its location next to areas with higher levels of transmission is also significant.
She said: “Clearly, we have travel restrictions in place. In terms of guidance, we are actively considering whether we give a legal underpinning in future weeks to these travel restrictions and I’ll probably say more about that at the review point next week.”