Around one third of young adults face being locked out of Scotland’s pubs and restaurants in the run-up to Christmas if Covid vaccine passports are extended.
With a decision looming on possible new restrictions, it has emerged the Scottish Government’s own evidence paper shows 31% of 18 to 29-year-olds would not have the required certification to visit a wider range of venues at the start of December.
Business leaders fear new rules could create a new “economic lockdown” which risks derailing the recovery of many firms at the most “critical point”.
First Minister Nicola Sturgeon is due to announce on Tuesday whether the Scottish Government will introduce tighter rules to curb growing coronavirus cases.
Vaccine passports, designed to prove a person has had two Covid-19 vaccinations, were introduced last month for people attending nightclubs and some large-scale events.
The scheme could soon be extended to include other venues, such as theatres, cinemas, restaurants and pubs.
An unacceptable double whammy for companies that penalises them for circumstances out of their control.”
– Business leader Russell Borthwick
A Scottish Government report, published on November 19, said extending the certification scheme was the least restrictive of measures the government could bring in, compared to re-introducing capacity limits on venues, curfews or completely closing events.
The report also states 88.1% of the overall adult population would have received two vaccine doses in time to be eligible for the certificate on December 1.
But that proportion falls to 77.6% for those in their 30s, and to 69% of those aged 18 to 29.
Russell Borthwick, chief executive of Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce, said: “Businesses have been clear that vaccine certification acts as an economic deterrent, placing additional cost on businesses with no additional support from government to help them meet the costs, and there remains little evidence that the scheme is effective in reducing transmission.
‘Severe economic harm’
“The suggestions of a return to table service in hospitality, caps on venue capacity and the reintroduction of curfews would in reality mean a return to an economic, if not social, lockdown which would cause severe economic harm to Scotland’s businesses at a critical point in their recovery.”
Deputy First Minister John Swinney has said the current passport scheme was “working well”, and had been downloaded for use more than 1.5 million times.
The public was “generally supportive”, according to the findings of the government report, with overall approval for the scheme sitting at 59%, while 24% opposed it and 13% neither supported nor opposed it.
However, nightclubs and other late-night businesses have reported a drop in footfall and revenue since the passport initiative was introduced, with some highlighting losses of almost 50%.
‘Balance the harms’
The report concluded that the impact of certification “cannot be measured directly”.
It said it was far less restrictive than other measures and could contribute to “a package that attempts to balance the harms”.
Mr Borthwick said: “This report offers no conclusive proof that any of the additional measures proposed will effectively achieve the objectives of suppressing the spread of the virus or drive-up vaccination levels from an already very high mark.
An unacceptable double whammy for companies that penalises them for circumstances out of their control.”
“Specifically, the report states that information on the effectiveness of the current vaccine passport scheme is incomplete. So why is an extension being considered?
“Why is it ok, with no funding available, to introduce stricter measures that the evidence in the report shows will increase business costs while supressing demand and revenue?
“An unacceptable double whammy for companies that penalises them for circumstances out of their control.”
On Sunday, Scottish Conservative leader Douglas Ross also questioned the evidence in the government’s own report.
He told the BBC: “Where is the evidence that these vaccine passports actually work?
“Their own 70-page document can’t tell us.”
He added: “I think this is absolutely wrong to be putting this added pressure and burden onto businesses at such short notice.”
A Scottish Government spokeswoman said: “The situation around the pandemic is serious so we are being open about all of the options available to us that may be required to protect the public.
“No decisions have been made on any extension of the vaccine certification scheme and parliament will be informed if and when any decisions are reached.
“We continue to liaise closely with stakeholders including the hospitality sector.”