What will it take for Scotland to beat England tonight?
It goes without saying that the hosts have to be at best a seven out of 10 as far as playing to their collective potential is concerned. If it’s an eight, forget about it. Whatever Gordon Strachan’s side can throw at them won’t be enough. The man for man gap in quality is just too big.
I’m not actually too worried about that bit, though. England hardly ever add up to the sum of their parts, let alone exceed them. So it would take a leap of faith to suggest that the sight of a pink Scottish shirt will bring it out of them.
They don’t look the most motivated bunch, there will be understandable confusion about what a third manager in a few months will be looking from them, and their confidence is more fragile than possibly any other major footballing nation.
The English public may not want their boys to lose, as Robert Snodgrass suggested earlier in the week, but they’re ready to be restless.
Unless they start really well, there’s every chance it won’t click.
Logic and recent history would point to England being average at best.
If Strachan can get his team playing like they were 18 months ago the Scots have a proper chance of winning. They really do.
That’s the more complicated part, however, as Scotland’s form and the national coach’s influence has been getting progressively worse in that year-and-a-half.
It’s a long time since there was anything approaching overwhelming support for a Strachan team selection. And his tactics haven’t been on the money either.
Scotland have little or no chance of winning if the Martin-Hanley centre-back partnership continues. One has to be stood down, preferably Grant Hanley. Christophe Berra should come in.
Put Brown and Fletcher or McArthur at the base of the midfield to protect the centre-halves as best they can, give Snodgrass the licence to roam, probe and create and put a couple of runners in amongst them who will clock up the sort of miles that would put a long distance runner to shame.
It was a nonsense that Leigh Griffiths didn’t start the last double-header but he needs to be fully match-sharp to be effective in this sort of company and a lack of game-time will mean he can’t possibly be. I’d rather it was Steven Fletcher who played the lone striker role but if it has to be Chris Martin, so be it. He’s actually in a bit of form just now.
It’s too simplistic to say Scotland should do an Iceland. But we should try and get as close to it as we can, and Martin may have an important part to play.
Iceland were brave. We need to be. They played with a high-line at the back. As scary as that may sound with the personnel Scotland have in defence, we need to do the same. They pressed rather than dropped off in the middle of the park. We’re definitely capable of that bit.
And they had a long-throw. So do we.
Remember the panic that caused in the English box in the summer. Roy Hodgson knew what was coming from Aron Gunnarson. He spoke about the preparations they had made to deal with it. Iceland still scored from one.
For whatever reason, defenders hate long-throws. They’d rather have a corner any day.
In Callum Paterson, Scotland have a real, if basic weapon. Lee Wallace’s isn’t quite as lethal, but it’ll do from the other flank.
The equaliser in the dreary draw with Lithuania, which was the first spade in the ground for the hole Strachan and his team currently find themselves in, may not have been celebrated given the circumstances. But it was a very effective training ground move.
A clever short-corner earned Scotland their last big win against Ireland. Something a bit more crude could be Scotland’s best chance of scoring and winning at Wembley. That, and the hope that the centre-backs start playing like Miller and McLeish.
