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‘Down but not out’ varying fortunes in Scotland’s property market

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The property market in Dundee has outperformed the rest of the country over the past year, according to new data from Lloyds TSB Scotland’s house price monitor.

The city saw an uplift of 7.8% in prices in the 12 months to the end of January the average home in Dundee now costs £129,445 according to Lloyds in-house data and was the only area in Scotland to have seen a positive change during the period.

Edinburgh saw a decline of 10.8% to an average sale price of almost £189,000, Glasgow dropped by 9.6% to £155,435, and Aberdeen saw a 3.9% decline to come in at £184,695.

The wider Tayside, Fife and Central region, which includes Perth, also saw drop-off of 5.4% to average out at £120,897.

Despite the general downturn over the year, the past two quarters have both seen growth, with a 1.3% rise recorded in the three months from November to give an average Scottish house price of £155,528.

Professor Donald MacRae, chief economist at Lloyds TSB Scotland, said it appeared the wider Scottish property market had plateaued. He said: ”The Scottish housing market has adjusted to the recession, with a halving of sales and a period of volatile price movement. Average house prices are now 91% of their peak of 3 years ago.

”Consumer confidence fell further during the last quarter of last year due to a high level of retail price inflation in excess of increases in earnings, squeezing disposable income.

”The Scottish housing market appears to have plateaued in both sales numbers and price movements.

”There is no sign of a vigorous recovery in the Scottish housing market, but, equally, no sign of a further precipitous fall in either house sales or house prices. The Scottish housing market remains down but not out.”

Peter Ryder, manager of the Tayside Solicitors Property Centre in Dundee, said data from its members which takes into account mortgage transaction involving other lenders pointed to a 17% rise in house purchases in the last three months compared to a year ago.

He said: ”In total 540 homes were sold in that three-month period via TSPC. The average price in Tayside increased from £129,865 in Q1 to £137,236 in Q4, a rise of 5.68%.

”However we have to bear in mind that the number of first-time buyers decreased during that period due to difficulties obtaining finance, and this helps increase the average house price.

”This year has started off positively with the number of sales in January up 10.45%, and we anticipate the number of sales in February will be up by at least 7% compared to last year’s figures.

”We would anticipate that there will be a slight improvement in the property market during 2012. First-time buyers clearly need help in order to get on to the property market and we really need the banks and the Government to assist, especially now that rents appear to be on the increase.”