Scotland goes to the polls today with the SNP appearing on course to secure a historic second term at Holyrood.
A poll of polls published on Wednesday night put the Nationalists on track for victory as a strengthened minority administration, despite a large proportion of the electorate still believed to be making up their mind on how to vote.
Public affairs consultants Webber Shandwick predicted 59 seats for Alex Salmond’s party in the 129-strong parliament. The analysis of three recent opinion polls suggests Labour will have 42 seats, Conservatives 12, Greens eight and Liberal Democrats seven. Independent Margo Macdonald would also return.
But the poll assumes a uniform swing across Scotland and does not take into account the traditionally strong core votes for parties such as Labour in urban areas and the Lib Dems in the rural north.
Labour began the Scottish Parliament election campaign as favourites, but over the last six weeks the SNP have managed to first close the gap and then open up a significant lead.
However, commentators have noted the SNP were consistently ahead in the polls in 2007 but only managed to win one more seat than Labour on voting day. And with as many as 50% of the electorate still believed to be undecided the turnout today is likely to play a major role in the final outcome.
Last night, all parties were saying there was still everything to play for.
Scottish Labour leader Iain Gray insisted the vote “will go down to the wire.”
“I have been out visiting battleground seats, meeting voters on the doorstep, listening to their concerns and fighting hard to win the trust of Scots again,” he said. “With every day that goes by Labour is fighting back and this election will go down to the wire.
“If you think the answer to Scotland’s economic problems is independence, you should vote SNP. But if people think the answer to Scotland’s economic problems is a plan for jobs and growth, you should vote Labour.”
SNP leader Alex Salmond said his party had fought a positive campaign.
“Today, many people will be thinking of voting SNP for the very first time, and I am asking them to do what is best for Scotland,” he said. “A re-elected SNP government will not let them down. If people place their trust in us, we will repay that trust and always take our lead from the people of Scotland.
“We are proud of the positive campaign we have run. Unlike others, we will never talk Scotland down. We have a vision for our country.
“The SNP stand for ambition and opportunity, as well as social justice and fairness. We reflect all of Scotland, and if re-elected today we will govern for all of Scotland.”
Scottish Liberal Democrat leader Tavish Scott used his final address to attack the SNP’s independence plan.
He said, “A vote for the Lib Dems is a vote for local police officers in our communities. It’s a vote for a government focused on jobs and restoring excellence to education.
“I’ve been all across Scotland, from Selkirk to Shetland, and everywhere I go people tell me that they want politicians to focus on the issues that matter to them that’s jobs, education and local services, not independence like the SNP.”
Meanwhile Scottish Conservative leader Annabel Goldie said she would keep Labour and the SNP under control.
“I see myself as the stick wielder, when that is necessary, to ensure delivery of sensible outcomes in the Scottish Parliament,” she said. “We have to block the threats to Scotland that can be posed either by Alex Salmond or Iain Gray, which are the threats of nationalism and the threats of socialism.”
Meanwhile, The Green Party emphasised its pledge for free education as it targeted students in Edinburgh.
As well as maintaining free education, the Greens have also promised investment in the low carbon industry to create graduate jobs and a free universal insulation scheme.
A referendum on using the alternative vote system to elect MPs to Westminster is also taking place today.