The independence debate has long been waiting for a “game changer”, a single event where momentum swings to one side with such force the outcome seems inevitable.
If it’s a No vote, we might look at George Osborne’s so-called sermon on the pound and think that was where the tables turned. It has certainly caused all sorts of headaches for the Yes campaign.
If the answer is Yes, well, it will be difficult to pinpoint such a moment. Every event to be trumpeted as a potentially crucial fork in the road – the European elections, Bannockburn celebrations, the first TV debate – has barely dented public opinion.
Now we are faced with the final face-to-face showdown between Alex Salmond and Alistair Darling on the box. Could this be the occasion where we all stop, gobsmacked, and think the tables have turned?
Probably not, in all honesty.
The First Minister surely cannot he as bad tonight for the BBC as he was a few weeks ago on STV.
I cannot see any more blethers about aliens or driving on the right hand side of the road.
Expert John Curtice has said being negative is the key to success. That is a view the SNP must share, otherwise why would some of the frankly ridiculous scare stories on the NHS be coming out now?
I also wouldn’t be surprised if there are more attacks on UK Government welfare policy from the First Minister.
Despite a failed attempt to ridicule it, scare tactics with the occasional bizarre and insulting claim thrown in has worked broadly well for Better Together.
However, while it is inevitable that Mr Salmond’s performance will be better, Alistair Darling will almost certainly improve as well.
The former Chancellor was sharp and forensic on the attack last time out but occasionally looked nervy when defending himself. These mistakes will have been pored over and answers well drilled.
A win is not needed from the Better Together leader. He can afford a draw and probably even a narrow defeat.
These debates are extremely important and provide people with the opportunity to examine the leaders’ arguments when they are under pressure.
But a game changer? Nah, no chance.
I’m afraid I don’t see one of those coming before September 18 but that’s quite exciting, isn’t it?