Iran is the sleeping economic giant of the Middle East. With 80 million people and an economy of $400 billion its full re-entry into the world marketplace is potentially transformational.
If it works well then it will be an example of co-operation with a Middle Eastern society, not one subservient to western interests and not one attuned to liberal values, but one which holds real elections and which has forsworn support for international terrorism.
If it goes badly then any prospect of western involvement which does not involve the propping up of dictatorships, illegal invasions, bombing campaigns and an endless cycle of violence disappears with it.
A successful Iran may be one of the last best hopes for peaceful co-existence with Muslim countries.
The international Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), by which Iran has committed to not developing a nuclear weapons programme in return for a lifting of sanctions, is now set for implement-ation in the next few months.
If we leave to one side the substantial irony of leading nations insisting on Iran’s compliance, whilst themselves brimming with nuclear arsenals, then this is an overwhelmingly positive development.
After that it will be full steam ahead for a resumption of trade and commerce with the western world.
SCOTTISH LINKS
Scotland’s connections with Iran are deep and long-standing.
One hundred years ago it was said that the Iranian oil industry was run from the North British hotel in Edinburgh! Oil giant BP started life as the AngloPersian oil company, while for more than half a century Iran provided a secure supply of oil for the Grangemouth refinery.
All of that changed after the fall of the Shah in 1979 after which Iran and the USA descended into a deep and fractious cold war.
From the US perspective, Iran was an anti-American theocracy which was both flirting with the Soviets and a leading source of state sponsored terrorism.
From an Iranian point of view America was the “great Satan” pursuing an economic crusade against their Islamic Republic and sponsoring their mortal enemy Saddam Hussein.
Now the diplomatic circle has turned again.
The west’s former pet dictator Saddam overreached himself with the invasion of Kuwait and then subsequently was on the receiving end of an American-led invasion.
When the Iraqi occupation went badly wrong, and then the full horror of Daesh inspired terrorism was unleashed on the world, suddenly the comparative stability of the Iranian Shi’ite state began to look much more attractive to the American State Department.
Faced with the murderous barbarity of Daesh, Iran seems a much better ally than opponent.
Similarly, as the USA no longer poses an immediate and existential threat to the Islamic Republic, a more moderate Iranian regional policy has begun to take shape.
Thus, from being part of George W Bush’s “axis of evil”, Iran has now become a country with which it is possible for the Obama White House to do business.
The nuclear deal was agreed between the pragmatic US Secretary of State John Kerry and the hugely impressive Iranian Foreign Minister Dr Mohammad Javad Zarif and now the stage is set fair for the rapprochement of Iran and the western world.
As such Scotland has much to gain from this renewed engagement but we shall have to act quickly to secure a position at the new commercial table.
DIPLOMACY
Last week I was in Iran with the first ever Scottish diplomatic delegation. We were guests of the Iranian Parliament, staying in the Espinas hotel in central Tehran.
The Espinas is admittedly the hotel of choice for official delegations.
However, no fewer than six other international delegations were also staying there in Christmas week.
Right now the world and her auntie are hot footing it to Tehran.
So what does Scotland have to offer Iran that makes it different and more useful compared with other countries?
For a start we have particular skills of which Iran has been deprived during the long years of sanctions.
Some of these are obvious.
Iran possesses the world’s second largest gas reserves and the fourth largest oil reserves.
However, the productivity of the Iranian industry has been poor in recent years.
The North-East of Scotland has in abundance exactly the variety of technologies that Iran needs while Scotland’s downstream industry needs every single market it can get into in today’s tough low oil price conditions.
Crucial to a rapid re-entry into world trade is a transformation in the Iranian financial sector. Iran will have hundreds of billions of dollar assets unfrozen in the next year or so and the sinews of international trade need a developed and efficient banking system.
Other major opportunities are less obvious but still very important.
It is also clear that having established their economic independence, Iranians therefore have no wish to turn their country into technological dependency.
EDUCATION
Sixty years ago the CIA, at the behest of the British fearful of oilfield nationalisation, organised a coup d’etat against the democratically elected government of Mohammed Mossadegh.
No Iranian would wish their country to be placed in a position of such vulnerability again. It was this blundering, self-interested and shortsighted western intervention which shaped modern Iranian history.
Iran has a substantial environmental challenge in its major cities with the air quality in Tehran in winter as toxic as that of Beijing.
An efficient low carbon public transport system would help. Iranian agricultural produce is of superb quality but the country has a crucial water shortage.
It needs both efficient irrigation systems and crop varieties which use less water.
However, the single most important opportunity for Iranian/Scottish cooperation lies in education.
Iran is an educated country with half of her youngsters attending university, including up to 60% of young women.
However, postgraduate places are in short supply and Scotland could be the perfect destination.
Iran’s reforming President Hassan Rouhani is himself Scottish educated, holding both a master’s degree and a doctorate from Glasgow Caledonian University.
All of these opportunities must be reciprocal if they are to be successful.
Any long term international deal should be built on the secure foundation of enlightened self-interest.
Iran is not a western liberal democracy.
Neither is it a terrorist state.
Iran has a tradition of elected governments, an educated and cultured population. It has been the cradle of world civilisation and, from clerical leader to shopkeeper, evinces a real and genuine respect for Scotland.
As she resumes engagement with the world community, Iran can develop a productive and enduring relationship with Scotland.