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Labour to gain Welsh seats in General Election, polling suggests

Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer (Stefan Rousseau/PA)
Labour Party leader Sir Keir Starmer (Stefan Rousseau/PA)

Labour is expected to gain seats in Wales in the General Election, according to polling, with the party predicted to take 45% of the vote share.

Despite Labour’s popularity in Wales, polling by More in Common also indicates a third of people agree that First Minister Vaughan Gething should resign over the donations scandal.

It comes as the Welsh Conservatives tabled a motion of no confidence in Mr Gething, which will take place on June 5.

Sir Keir Starmer and Vaughan Gething
Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer and Welsh First Minister Vaughan Gething (Peter Byrne/PA)

In 2019, the Conservatives took six seats from Labour, turning Wrexham, Bridgend, Delyn, the Vale of Clwyd, Clwyd South and Ynys Mon blue.

The number of seats in Wales has been reduced from 40 to 32 as part of an effort to more accurately reflect the number of voters in the country, and 26 of these are expected to be held by Labour MPs after the election on July 4.

The survey, which interviewed 805 Welsh residents, also suggests some Tory votes will be lost to Reform UK and Labour, with the Conservatives predicted to end with three parliamentary seats.

The Conservatives are estimated to take 21% of the vote share – down from 36% in 2019 – followed by Plaid Cymru with 13%, Reform UK (12%), Liberal Democrats (4%) and the Green Party (3%).

Labour is seen as most trustworthy by Welsh people, according to the poll, with the party coming out on top when asked about housing, immigration, education, climate change, social care and the cost of living.

POLITICS Election Polls
(PA Graphics)

But when it comes to the war in Ukraine and the conflict in Gaza, the Conservatives marginally take top spot as the most trustworthy.

While polling is positive for Labour in Wales, it does raise questions for Mr Gething, with 30% of respondents saying they think electing him as First Minister was the wrong decision.

Concerns have been raised after he accepted a significant donation from a man convicted of environmental offences during his run to be Welsh Labour leader.

He has also refused to show any evidence to explain why he sacked Senedd member Hannah Blythyn from his government as the minister for social partnership, after he accused her of leaking messages to the media.

Asked to pick words to describe Wales’s Labour leader, the most popular option was “don’t know” (33%), followed by “shifty” (19%), “out of touch” (15%) and “incompetent” (13%).

POLITICS Election
(PA Graphics)

On the other hand, 12% used the words “intelligent” and “professional”.

Labour leader Sir Keir Starmer has continued to back Mr Gething, saying he is “doing a good job”, but the poll suggests the public think otherwise, with 17% agreeing he is doing a good job and 34% saying he is doing badly.

The poll shows 20% of people think Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is doing a good job, and 59% believe he is doing a bad job.

In the eyes of 29% of respondents Sir Keir is doing a good job, and 38% say he is doing a bad job. Just over a tenth said Liberal Democrat leader Sir Ed Davey is doing a good job, and 25% say he is not.

Half of respondents say they are unclear what Sir Keir stands for, compared with 58% for Mr Sunak.

Sir Keir (54%) and Mr Gething (67%) are seen as “more of the same”, as opposed to a change, as the election approaches.