Manchester City and Chelsea meet on Sunday in the Carabao Cup final at Wembley.
Here, Press Association Sport takes a statistical look at the big game. While the match is a cup tie, all statistics relate to this season’s Premier League games.
City back on the goal trail
A repeat of City’s recent 6-0 Premier League win over Chelsea is a long shot but there are underlying numbers pointing to more goals.
In league games away from Stamford Bridge, Chelsea have conceded one goal every 6.3 shots faced on average – worse in that regard than any team except Bournemouth.
City’s league-high 17.1 shots per game therefore point to a likely three-goal haul, leaving Maurizio Sarri’s men with it all to do – they are City’s nearest challengers with 15.6 shots per game, but will need to make them count.
Strangely, many of Chelsea’s defensive problems have come from long-range shots – they have conceded once in every 14.8 shots from outside the penalty area, compared to a league average of once every 26.5, and only Cardiff (14.2) have fared worse.
The likes of Leroy Sane and, if selected, Riyad Mahrez may therefore fancy their chances from distance. They are among City’s most threatening players, though figures from StatsBomb show them well behind Sergio Aguero and Gabriel Jesus in terms of expected goals (xG) per 90 minutes.
Guardiola’s out-and-out strikers each take shots worth almost a full expected goal per game, with 0.85 xG per 90 for Aguero and 0.82 for Jesus. Mahrez follows on 0.40, level with Chelsea’s main threat Eden Hazard, with Sane (0.33) tucking in just behind Raheem Sterling (0.36).
However, City rank second and Chelsea third in terms of Premier League clean sheets this season. They have 12 and 11 respectively, behind only Liverpool’s 14.
Odds against extra time
Should City live up to their scoring potential, Chelsea will have a severe task on their hands merely to take the final to extra time – and another City statistic also works against that outcome.
Guardiola’s men have gone 19 Premier League games without a draw, the second-longest run in the league behind Tottenham’s remarkable 30 games.
Chelsea have also lost all four away games this season against teams currently in the top seven – 3-1 against Tottenham at Wembley, 2-1 at seventh-placed Wolves, 2-0 at Arsenal and that 6-0 thumping at the Etihad Stadium.