The SNP’s decision to block failed diplomat Craig Murray’s bid to be an MP was a wise one. What is troubling for the party, though, is that such a loose cannon ever made it as far as the short list.
Murray, sacked as Britain’s ambassador to Uzbekistan 10 years ago, had campaigned for a Yes vote in the referendum and put himself forward as a Westminster candidate, claiming to have backing from party members in Falkirk as well as Airdrie and Shotts.
But the man who once said Unionists were either “deeply unpleasant sociopaths” or “extraordinarily thick” was deemed ill-disciplined and rejected by the party hierarchy. He has since gone on the attack, berating SNP chiefs who make a “fat living” and who are “terrified of the energy of the Yes campaign”.
While Murray is a one-off accident waiting to happen, the episode highlights what could be a major problem for the Nationalists.
In trying to harness the surge in its support and swelling of its membership following referendum defeat, the SNP altered its rules.
At the November conference in Perth, new leader Nicola Sturgeon promised to open up Westminster selection to people who “in the normal course of things wouldn’t satisfy our membership criteria to be a candidate”.
Parliamentary hopefuls no longer need to be party members for a minimum of 12 months, enabling prominent Yes activists to be rewarded for their efforts.
The downside is that while the Yes camp politicised thousands and built up impressive momentum during the campaign, they were a loosely aligned bunch that encompassed ultra left Scottish Socialists, anarchists, Greens, assorted mavericks like Tommy Sheridan and a smattering of mostly expat actors.
Colourful though the movement was, its grassroots militants do not necessarily translate into a new generation of line-toeing professional politicians. It is small wonder that party bosses insist on vetting any names put forward by local SNP branches, and that party officials are behaving, according to Craig Murray, more officiously than the Foreign Office.
The latest opinion poll, for ICM, gives the Nationalists a commanding lead in Westminster voting intentions, of 43% to Labour’s 26%, and the SNP believes it can massively increase its tally of six MPs to win Labour’s 41 Scottish seats. But to make gains on this scale it must select able candidates who are not too independent.
The talent pool is tiny and, as UKIP is discovering across Britain, unfettered free agents can do far more harm than good.
The SNP delayed its selection process because of the referendum and then the leadership change, so a full list is not yet available. But among those reportedly looking for nominations are Tommy Sheppard, the Edinburgh comedy club boss who joined the party after September 18, and losing MEP candidate Tasmina Ahmed-Sheikh, branded a political opportunist for flipping between Labour and the Conservatives before settling with the SNP.
And, of course, Alex Salmond himself has announced his designs on Gordon in the north-east. He has to overturn a Lib Dem majority of 6,748 but at least he is an election veteran.
For rookie Nationalists, with more enthusiasm than experience, ousting incumbent Labour MPs is not going to be as easy as the polls suggest. According to a recent analysis in the New Statesman, the SNP would need a swing of more than 15% to secure 20 Labour seats. This might sound achievable, given the current polls, but a uniform swing of this size is rare in general elections.
In seats where Labour is fielding new candidates, the SNP might think it has a better chance, but winning in Alistair Darling’s Edinburgh South West, for example, would require a swing of more than 15% (and the Nationalists came fourth there in 2010), and in Gordon Brown’s Kirkcaldy and Cowdenbeath the swing needed is over 25%.
While the SNP is struggling to accommodate its boisterous new recruits within its lean election winning machine, opposition parties should take advantage.
When voters see that the choice in May is between tried and tested stalwarts defending local services and single-issue separatists angling for a second referendum, they will hopefully stick with what they know.