Labour’s lead over the Conservatives has been cut to five points, according to a poll released today.
The ICM poll for The Guardian put Ed Miliband’s party on 38% (down two points since a similar poll last month), David Cameron’s Tories on 33% (up one), with Nick Clegg’s Liberal Democrats on 15% (up two) and the UK Independence Party on 6% (down one).
Labour’s advantage is the narrowest recorded by ICM since August last year, and follows a period in which the party has consistently racked up double-digit leads over the Conservatives.
It is likely to spark speculation that Mr Cameron’s standing has been boosted by his handling of the crises in Algeria and Mali and by reports he is planning to offer an in/out referendum on future British membership of the European Union.
However, the survey contains less encouraging news for Tories over the Government’s flagship policy of breaking the link between benefit levels and inflation and capping most welfare rises at 1% for the next three years.
Ministers have presented the move as a matter of fairness towards people in work, who have seen their pay rises held below inflation over the last few years, while benefits have gone up more quickly.
But when participants in the ICM poll were asked how they viewed the proposal, just 36% agreed that “squeezing benefits is fair, seeing as wages for workers are also being squeezed”, while 58% saw it as “unfair, seeing as it will hurt the vulnerable, including many people who do work hard for low pay”.
The survey confirmed a continuing gender gap in voting intentions, with Conservatives one point ahead among men, where they lead Labour by 36% to 35%, but trailing Ed Miliband’s party by 16 points among women voters, at 29% to Labour’s 45%.
On the other hand, the Conservatives are ahead of Labour by 39% to 30% among the over-65s, who have historically been the age group most likely to turn out and vote.
ICM Research interviewed 1,001 adults between January 18 and 20.