In a week, Paul McGinley will be preparing to announce what will be the single most analysed decision of his entire Ryder Cup captaincy.
His choice of wildcards, revealed at Wentworth next Tuesday lunchtime, may be the defining mark of his tenure, much more than any decision made during the match itself.
There’s always a chance that the Irishman might go with a hunch during the match that’s debated for decadesbut unlikely.
It’s very rare that skippers break from carefully considered plans to make a telling move the only one I can think of in my time is Sam Torrance’s Sunday singles order in 2002, and his hand was forced with a tied match score and the relative strengths of the two teams.
McGinley is a serious Ryder Cup geek and has studied previous strategies in more detail than anyone can appreciate. Which is why I’d be shocked if he didn’t give wildcards to Luke Donald, Ian Poulter and Lee Westwood.
This will happen unless Stephen Gallacher actually finishes first or second at the Italian Open and thereby secures an automatic qualifying place at the expense of Graeme McDowell, who is taking leave to be at the birth of his first child.
Gallacher, of course, has a good case to be a wildcard. He’s put in the yards, he’s been consistent the Czech Open was his seventh top ten finish of the season he knows the track better than anyone on either side. He’s a Scot, obviously, and would galvanise the huge home support at Gleneagles.
I think McGinley knows that Stevie wouldn’t let anyone down. The Irishman has repeatedly said he wouldn’t hesitate to use a pick on a rookie. He was sincere in saying that, but it doesn’t mean that he will.
Jamie Donaldson’s win in the Czech Republic ensures he already has two rookies, Victor Dubuisson being the other. With Europe’s formidable backbone of McIlroy, Garcia, Stenson, Rose and Kaymer, he could accommodate one more.
But he doesn’t have to. There’s tried and tested choices available.
The previous records of Donald, Poulter and Westwood shouldn’t count for much if they’re not in form? Nonsense, as McGinley’s detailed research will have clearly shown.
Poulter and Donald have been wildcards twice each, Westwood was in 2006, while he could barely hit his hat prior to the delayed 2002 match. On each occasion, previous form be damned, they’ve all produced in spades in the cauldron of the matches.
Donald has 10 wins, four losses and a half in four cups, never finishing on a losing team. Poulter is 12-3-0 and is 4-0 in singles, becoming a legend as a wildcard last time. Only four players in history Faldo, Ballesteros, Langer and Montgomerie – have won more points for Europe than Westwood.
If Stevie wins in Italy, McGinley has a tough decision with McDowell needing a wildcard. I still think he’d go with the three Englishmen in such a scenario.
Track records shouldn’t count for much? Only when they aren’t as good as these.
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It’s one of the oddities of Ryder Cups that when American captains have relied on tried and tested campaigners as wildcards, it’s been a lot less effective than their when their European counterparts do it.
As we noted in T2G a couple of weeks ago, Davis Love III’s decision to pick Steve Stricker and Jim Furyk in 2012 probably cost the USA the cup, as the senior men won a single point between them.
Hunter Mahan was one of those left out two years ago at Stricker and Furyk’s expense, and his win at the Barclays at the weekend would appear to have him a certainty to be a wildcard this time.
It’s an obvious decision which, pending the champion at the second FedEx Cup event the Deutsch Bank, means that Tom Watson at least has a winner in the last four months to show off at the opening ceremony.
The last winner Watson has guaranteed on his team for Gleneagles is, amazingly, Matt Kuchar from the Heritage as far back at April, the week after the Masters.
Even if Watson did have any tried and trusteds there to pick, the US team looks the weakest since Tom Lehman’s team that were routed at the K Club in 2006.
No-one’s counting any chickens, obviously, but
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Meanwhile, just when we thought Scotland would have a quiet period of reflection in 2015 after this year’s frenzy, next July looks like a new form of madness.
We’re going to have the Scottish Open at Gullane, followed by the Open at St Andrews, then the Ladies Scottish Open at Dundonald and the RICOH Women’s British at Turnberry, all in four weeks.
Furthermore the Scottish Government whatever form it takes post Indyref seems in for the long haul with financial input into all these events, confirming, along with Aberdeen Asset Management, it is discussing backing the men’s Scottish Open until 2020. They’re already committed to the women’s events until that time.
Doubling up the LSO this year’s version is this week at Archerfield and the RICOH would appear to be a sound move given the perceived success for the country of having the Scottish Open and the Open played back to back.
But it’s unlikely to have anything like the same effect unless the LSO is given more money and a much higher profile. Plus we’re risking a little bit of tournament fatigue that has been prevalent at the RICOH in past years – from the fans rather than the journalists, I should point out.
The additional news that Kingsbarns will host the RICOH in 2017 is nothing but positive news, however. The outstanding track south of St Andrews has long merited a championship to itself rather than simply a share of the Alfred Dunhill Links.
I thought it might be a Walker Cup and no doubt the R&A are still thinking about that, but the Women’s Open is the perfect size for Kingsbarns, and it should be a blast.