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The smart ones are in no rush for #indyref 2

Nicola Sturgeon knows another independence referendum so soon after last year would lead to another defeat.
Nicola Sturgeon knows another independence referendum so soon after last year would lead to another defeat.

Three hundred and fifty long days ago we were all preparing for the possibility of political history. As voters set off to the polls, very few people were sure whether or not Scotland was on its way to becoming independent.

Of course, what the dusty old books (or shiny, interactive tablet replacements) will show future generations is that the result was actually quite a comfortable victory for No and those of us who were involved in the “bubble” on the night were being briefed the result pretty accurately from early ballot box samples.

But given the fact Yes got closer to victory than many in the campaign thought was possible, there was a feeling this wasn’t actually all over.

Add to that a political awakening by some who devoted themselves to the independence cause and there was suddenly a realisation the issue would run and run. And run. And run. And run, as it turned out.

As you would expect, a new poll for STV suggesting breaking from the UK would be the preferred outcome for most Scots were another referendum to be held has caused quite the stir among some nationalists.

Not all, though. One senior SNP figure expressed worries to me about the knock-on effect of this poll for Nicola Sturgeon’s government.

“Now the zoomers will want another referendum right away,” they sighed.

The sight of Tommy Sheridan’s relentless focus on independence rather than, say, socialist principles might be an inside-churning irritation for many but his enthusiasm for the cause has kept those people who love to protest against something, nay anything, very much alive and kicking.

Interestingly, though, support for an imminent second vote was lower than backing for Scotland going it alone.

Exactly half of those people surveyed want to do it all again within five years.

That rises to 58% within 10 years, admittedly, but a decade away still seems like quite a long time to most folk considering such matters.

Even potential game changers like the UK voting to leave the EU (52%), the much hyped English Votes for English Laws being passed (50%) and the much over-hyped renewal of Trident (41%) fail to make much difference to people’s thinking.

That’s why the smart group at the top of the SNP are in no rush to drag the “National Question” back in front of voters. They know people actually aren’t all that fussed about it, outside the metaphorical (and sometimes literal) drum banging obsessives, as they get on with their day to day lives.

Throw the odd constitutional bone out there like threatening to derail more powers for Holyrood over a sense of injustice to keep grievance levels just high enough but absolutely do not hold another plebiscite.

Why would you bother when you’re on course to absolutely smash your opponents at the next election and your leader has genuine approval ratings which look like the sort of things dictatorships plant in their “national approved” newspapers?

And why would you when, whisper it, you’d lose again? Nothing material has changed since last September. The economic picture is similar, oil prices have dropped and there is still no answer to the currency question.

It’s easy to say Yes when the question is hypothetical. Nicola Sturgeon knows this and is too on the ball to risk defeat for a second time.