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Osborne needs new tricks as AAA rating vanishes

Osborne needs new tricks as AAA rating vanishes

The Chancellor may well have allowed a broad grin to spread across his face this week after the UK’s labour market statistics were revealed.

Despite the continuing downturn, the number of people in work in the UK continues to rise with a new record of 29.7 million reached in the final quarter of 2012.

The figure was 154,000 higher than the situation at the end of Q3 and 580,000 greater than at the same juncture a year ago a creditable performance given the economic backdrop.

But within hours the smile was well and truly wiped off Mr Osborne’s face after ratings agency Moody’s took the decision to downgrade the UK’s top line AAA credit rating.

For a little context, such an occurrence has not happened since 1978, the year before Iron Lady Margaret Thatcher seized power at Downing Street with the last Tory government.

Moody’s decision has seen it officially re-evaluate Britain which has never defaulted on its debts as AA1 while the two other main agencies Standards and Poor and Fitch have also hinted at a possible downgrading.

The reappraisal was as Labour was quick to point out a humiliating blow for Number 11 but the decision was far from unexpected.

It has become ever more apparent to observers of the UK’s public finances that there will be no quick fix to the country’s economic woes.

Moody’s said it had taken its decision on the basis that growth in the UK was likely to be sluggish at best in the medium term.

The agency was effectively predicting an extended age of austerity where measures promoted by the Conservative / Lib Dem coalition to reduce the deficit take longer to make a real impact.

The downgrade forced a smarting Mr Osborne to have to take emergency questions at Westminster on Monday.

The Chancellor was, of course, castigated by all and sundry in the chamber for what political rivals believed were his wrong-headed economic policies.

He was urged to look again at the direction of travel of the economy and change course before it was too late but there was no surprise when Mr Osborne said he would be sticking by his guns.

As the political reaction became ever more fevered, what quickly became lost among the point-scoring was the question of whether the downgrade actually matters for the UK economy.

In theory it is a bad thing. A lower credit rating would normally mean greater risk for lenders and a consequent hike in the cost of borrowing.

When you borrow more than £100 billion a year as the UK Government does (or more accurately as taxpayers we do) then even the slightest rise can have a dramatic effect on the amount required to service that debt.

However, the USA lost its own AAA rating back in 2011 and the costs of borrowing have stayed low there as investors have kept the faith.

Early indications are that Britain may be similarly fortunate. The markets have not been spooked as many traders had been expecting Moody’s intervention.

But with pressure on the value of sterling remaining it is trading at a two-and-a-half year low against the dollar and a 16-month low against the euro the City and wider business community will be looking to the Chancellor for some good news to draw upon come next month’s budget.

If Mr Osborne is not to be remembered for posterity as the downgrade Chancellor he knows he needs to find a rabbit in his hat to restore lost confidence and kickstart growth.

A wholesale U-turn on austerity may not be on the cards but watch out for some populist manoeuvring when the Treasury dusts down the red box in three weeks time.