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Holyrood election: what’s in store with 100 days to go

Holyrood election: what’s in store with 100 days to go

Making predictions about sport and politics is usually as safe as getting into a shark tank with a paper cut but I can confidently assert that two things will happen this May.

One – sadly – is that Dundee United will play its last Scottish Premiership game for at least 12 months.

The other is the SNP will score a convincing win in the Scottish Parliamentary elections.

According to recent polls, Nicola Sturgeon’s party is on course to return more MSPs than it did in 2011.

If you remember that one, it was when the Nats broke the Holyrood voting system to return a majority. Pretty stunning stuff.

There are also fascinating sub texts at play when you go beyond who is going to form the government.

Will the Tories beat Labour and become the main opposition? It’s extremely unlikely but the very fact it’s being seriously talked about highlights an incredible fall from grace for a party which just a few years ago took Scotland for granted as its heartland.

Labour politicians I’ve spoken are pessimistic.

“May’s a write off,” according to one, who reckons this is actually the time to start putting forward an over arching narrative to set up for 2021.

Meanwhile, the Conservative leadership is confident – and not quietly so – of achieving the party’s greatest ever total of MSPs.

That’s possible, given focus is finally on the regional list vote rather than constituencies.

A note of caution on the so-called revival, though.

Given the Tories returned 16.7% of Scotland’s votes at last year’s UK general election, polling 17% at the moment is not progress.

Meanwhile, the Lib Dems and Greens will battle it out for what remains.

I have a sneaking suspicion the Liberals won’t do as badly as is being predicted by some but I’ve already put my neck on the line twice, which is plenty.

Campaigning parties hope to change some people’s minds over the next 100 days.

There are fine margins for them to play with – but they could be crucial.