The low price of oil could boost Scotland’s recovery even as the sector suffers, according to the Fraser of Allander Institute.
Risks to recovery include unbalanced growth and further austerity measures, unless the private sector grows to compensate.
Problems in the eurozone with the risks of deflation and a Greek exit could also damage Scotland’s economy.
Brian Ashcroft, emeritus professor of economics, said: “The falling oil price and recovering investment could provide a welcome boost to the recovery.
“The impact on employment this year could range from 9,700 net additional jobs to a net job loss of 600.”
The low oil price is to be welcomed, but he said the impact on the oil and gas industry, a major asset to the Scottish economy, should not be forgotten.
David Glen of PwC called for Budget reforms of the oil and gas industry’s complex tax regime.