A study of North Sea oil and gas operators found almost a third of firms in the sector reckon Scottish independence would “lead to more complications” for their business.
The survey, published by Aberdeen and Grampian Chamber of Commerce in tandem with Strathclyde University’s Fraser of Allander Institute, showed investment in the vital north-east industry has hit a record high thanks to greater certainty over taxes.
But it also revealed disquiet over the prospect of next year’s referendum, with a majority of those responding to the survey saying it was “difficult to form an opinion” on independence without more detail on the potential for regulatory, taxation and policy changes.
Energy Minister Fergus Ewing said the Scottish Government would set out its approach to tax and regulation of an asset worth an estimated £1.5 trillion “shortly”.
“With capital investment predicted to rise to more than £13 billion in 2013 and with £100bn of investment in companies’ plans, production will therefore continue, on the basis of existing and planned developments, for many decades to come,” he said.
“We have published our oil and gas strategy setting our ambitious plans for the industry, which has, in addition to increased investment, a key focus on the long-term development of the workforce.”
He added: “An independent Scottish Government would seek to continue its agenda as set out in the oil and gas strategy, and indeed strengthen it through full use of all fiscal and regulatory levers that are not available at present.”
Companies reported more activity than ever last year, with 60% of respondents anticipating a further increase in the year to come. Two-in-five firms said budget decisions made by the UK Government were having a positive influence on investment levels.
More than half the contractors said they were more confident about business on the UK Continental Shelf in the coming year, though many firms reported staff shortages.
Bob Collier, chief executive of AGCC, said: “The latest strong survey findings confirm the results of other surveys conducted in the last six months that the sector is in good health with capacity being utilised, investment increasing and optimism about the future.
“However, as with previous surveys, the skills shortage is identified as constraining activity. It is important to act now to sustain the north-east as an international services centre for the oil and gas sector.
“Confidence is high for future prospects in both the UKCS and international markets, but there remains a long-term challenge to build exports and keep work in the region, rather than outsource work to other lower-cost provinces.”
Kenny Paton, partner at law firm and study sponsor Bond Dickinson, said: “The progressive changes to tax allowances which the Government has introduced since 2011, coupled with rising international demand, have resulted in all operators reporting rising activity last year, with two out of three anticipating the same this year.
“It is clear that certainty delivers for the industry.”
A total of 38% of respondents said they were factoring next year’s independence vote and its consequences into their plans, while 57% said they were not.