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Uncertainty in markets now will be nothing compared to consequences of secession

Uncertainty in markets now will be nothing compared to consequences of secession

A worried friend phoned on Sunday after seeing the YouGov survey that gave the Yes campaign its first ever lead in the opinion polls.

Are we really doomed, she asked, before taking to the streets to canvass wavering voters.

If only the bad news had marshalled all the people who went into meltdown that day, Better Together would be inundated with offers of help in the final stages of the referendum.

But it wasn’t just unionists here who were upset by that one poll, which saw a narrow lead for Yes of 51% to No’s 49%. The stock market wobbled and the pound slumped. Boris Johnson, the London Mayor, said we were sleepwalking to tragedy, George Osborne, the Chancellor, promised the immediate delivery of devo max in the event of a No vote, and David Cameron was said to be discussing the situation with the Queen, who was said to be very concerned.

Of course, events have already overtaken the YouGov bombshell, not least for Her Majesty, who must have known the Cambridges were expecting again even as she reflected on the problematic affairs of state with her Prime Minister.

Never mind the political arguments, a Royal baby may provide just the bounce the No camp need.

We only have to look back to 2012 and the surge of flag-waving patriotic fervour that greeted the diamond jubilee to see how the monarchy remains an emotive force, north and south of the border.

But was Britain ever really on the brink? There have been new polls, and there will be more before next Thursday, and though the race is close, there is no need to panic, unless you are a separatist.

This view is based on several, unscientific, criteria. The first is the bookies, who may not be as forensic as the pollsters but have more at stake. They have taken nearly £4 million in bets between them on the referendum and on Sunday they did shorten the odds on a nationalist win.

However, they still have a No vote as the most likely result; Betfair’s IndyRef market had given the unionists a more than 70% chance of winning, even after the shock poll, and political betting expert Mike Smithson said the YouGov figures should be treated with caution until supported by other polls.

Another reason for optimism is that a large number of votes are already in the bag. As much as a fifth of the electorate have cast their postal votes, and when these went out, No was ahead in the campaign by 22 points.

Any momentum claimed by the nationalists now is too little and too late to have an impact.

But my conviction that all will be alright is based largely on the presumption, severely tested in recent weeks, that a majority of Scots would not be daft enough to risk everything on a Yes vote.

There may be a lot of gamblers in Scotland (see above), but how many people would bet their livelihoods on Alex Salmond’s flimsy promises?

The uncertainty in the markets at the moment will be nothing compared to the consequences of secession.

The SNP has conceded that taxes will rise, but with the prospect of a new Scottish currency floating freely, interest rates will increase, too, and homeowners will be faced with soaring mortgage repayments.

There has already been a rush to remove money from pension funds based in Scotland and many banks have said they would re-evaluate their business here in the event of independence.

Where this would leave first-time buyers is anyone’s guess.

Alex Salmond’s answer to serious enquiries about the economy is to either brush them aside, or shout down the person who asked the question.

Or he wheels out one of the few big businessmen who have come out in favour of independence, such as Jim McColl, of Clyde Blowers.

Mr McColl agrees with Mr Salmond that things will be just the same as they are now following a Yes vote, and so they may be for him, in his tax haven in Monaco.

But they won’t be for ordinary Scots and to pretend otherwise, as the nationalists are doing, is nothing short of cruel.