We’ll know for sure that Tiger Woods has finally entered the inevitable decline that afflicts all golfers even him when the punters finally desert him.
Right now, if he turned up to the first tee at Muirfield on Thursday half-balanced on a crutch with a plaster cast and an eye patch, the bookies might still have him on single-figure odds.
It’s not as bad as that this week, but despite not having played competitively for a month, despite a dodgy elbow still requiring painkillers, despite the fact he has barely hit his hat on the weekends at the majors in the last two years and hasn’t won one for five years, he’s still the 9-1 favourite for the 142nd Open Championship, with the nearest rival at 18-1.
It’s still hard to agree with Nick Faldo’s assertion on Monday that, after all the above, Woods’ self-belief has taken a dent. It’s the rock on which he has built his career, and he gives no hint whatsoever that he might even entertain a thought of mortality.
“I feel very, very good going into the major championships,” he insisted. “I’ve been in there in a bunch of them where I’ve had chances. I just need to keep putting myself there and eventually I’ll get some.
“It’s just a shot here and there. It’s capitalising on opportunities. It’s not much, it could happen on the first day or the last.”Follow golf writer Steve Scott and Courier sports editor Eric Nicolson’s live behind-the-scenes updates from Muirfield hereThere does seem to be a trend developing with Woods in that he can dominate in the regular tour events he plays four wins this year yet seems to struggle when the heat turns up on major weekends. He’s not shot under 70 on a Saturday or Sunday of an Open since 2007.
Furthermore, his injury toll (was there ever a player with more varied ailments than Woods?) is a recurring feature, this year it being the elbow that he downed tools on after the US Open and which he’s still treating with painkillers.
There were mixed messages when he spoke to the media on Wednesday.
Firstly “the elbow feels good, everything’s good to go” but also the revelation that he was playing just nine holes at a time in practice when he was eventually allowed on after being chased by security for breaking the not-before-7am rule to protect it from the hard-baked, dry ground.
Those conditions, despite all the other detractions, are what maybe make Woods a credible favourite this week, given the experience of Hoylake in 2006.
Then he played his way to a comfortable victory “under the course”, playing irons off all tees so often that playing partner Faldo asked for his driver to give to his son “as you don’t seem to want it any more”.
The tactic is not really the rocket science standard that was claimed for it then or since (others tried it but were less effective) and Muirfield is different in that there is a sizeable amount of tangled wheat in the run-out whereas at Royal Liverpool even the rough had burned off, as Tiger acknowledged.
“The golf course has a bit of speed to it,” he said. “I’ve played three days and only hit a couple of drivers.
“You hit a three-wood and it’s run (after it lands) close to 80, 90 yards you can chase balls that go a long way. On (the 575-yard par five) 17 yesterday I hit two three-irons over the green. But it also means hitting it in the fairway doesn’t mean it’s going to stay there. It’s got to be the correctly shaped shot and trajectory.”
Certainly all the major manufacturers are a bit nervous this week.
TaylorMade, Callaway and Nike have all unveiled new drivers and it doesn’t look like the headcovers will even come off.
Muirfield has a certain reputation to protect this week with only one winner here Alf Perry in 1935 not in the Hall of Fame and only one of the 12 others not already having a Hall of Fame CV when he won. That exception is Gary Player, who won his debut major here in 1959, and did rather decently after that.
However, Tiger doesn’t think it a given that we’ll have a player of that ready-made calibre with the Claret Jug on Sunday night.
“You can’t guarantee that,” he said. “Given the fact that over the past five years we’ve had first-time winners at virtually every single major.
“The margin between the first player and last in the field is very small.
“The equipment is so precise now that it allows guys to basically stack up, combined with better, more athletic players.
“That’s why we’ve had so many first-timer winners.”
Which, of course, makes 9-1 odds with a suspect elbow even less appealing.