Bank of England governor Mark Carney has said the Scottish economy must combine the sprint start of Allan Wells with the marathon endurance of Liz McColgan if it is to win the race for sustainable recovery.
He told the Commonwealth Games Business Conference in Glasgow that the UK had made a strong start to its recovery efforts, but stressed that what really matters is what comes next.
He said interest rates would need to rise to maintain an inflation target of 2% in the coming months, but there was no fixed timing for increases which would be gradual, limited and only determined by economic data.
Real-terms growth in salaries would be an important consideration, governed as they are by labour market patterns.
“A key judgment for the MPC (Monetary Policy Committee) is when and to what extent these developments will translate into real wage growth, and in turn that wage growth into price pressures,” he said.
“Next month’s inflation report provides the next opportunity to update our thinking on these important questions.
“A durable expansion rests ultimately on moving from anaemic to strong productivity growth.
“Only that can improve export competitiveness and underpin consistent increases, rather than falls, in real wages,” he said.
He called for trade with fast-growing Commonwealth nations to be boosted through the initiative of UK businesses and a focused trading strategy.
Meanwhile, Scottish Government Finance Secretary John Swinney told the conference economic recovery was being felt across most industries.
He said more Scottish-based companies than ever were being supported as they sought to expand internationally, while newly-published figures revealed international manufacturing exports grew by 3% during the first three months of this year.
The export rise includes a 12.5% boost in the volume of exports of refined petroleum, chemical and pharmaceutical products compared with the previous quarter attributed to the resumption of production at the Grangemouth oil refinery following its temporary closure at the end of last year.
Mr Swinney said: “These figures reinforce the belief that recovery is being felt across most industries, and follow on from recent GDP figures which show that the Scottish economy is now past its pre-recession peak with GDP growing by 1% in the first quarter of 2014, faster than the UK as a whole.”
But he said times remained challenging, and highlighted the support available through enterprise agencies.
He said that Scottish Development International had supported 2,708 companies in the past year, an increase of almost 30%.
“There is no doubt that the Commonwealth Games has brought huge international focus on Glasgow and Scotland,” Mr Swinney added.
“The Games are already delivering a significant economic legacy that will benefit Scottish businesses and communities for years to come, and we are committed to working with Commonwealth countries to extend that ambitious economic legacy.”
SDI chief executive Anne MacColl said the record level of demand for support demonstrated increased confidence and a “more international mindset”.
“We have a real opportunity to use this as a springboard to radically transform Scotland’s economy,” she said.
Meanwhile, Prime Minister David Cameron said more than £14 billion had been raised from UK trade and investment deals signed during or related to the London Olympics in 2012.
He said Scotch whisky exports were now worth £135 a second, and urged firms to make more use of the UK’s global ambassadorial network.