Calendar An icon of a desk calendar. Cancel An icon of a circle with a diagonal line across. Caret An icon of a block arrow pointing to the right. Email An icon of a paper envelope. Facebook An icon of the Facebook "f" mark. Google An icon of the Google "G" mark. Linked In An icon of the Linked In "in" mark. Logout An icon representing logout. Profile An icon that resembles human head and shoulders. Telephone An icon of a traditional telephone receiver. Tick An icon of a tick mark. Is Public An icon of a human eye and eyelashes. Is Not Public An icon of a human eye and eyelashes with a diagonal line through it. Pause Icon A two-lined pause icon for stopping interactions. Quote Mark A opening quote mark. Quote Mark A closing quote mark. Arrow An icon of an arrow. Folder An icon of a paper folder. Breaking An icon of an exclamation mark on a circular background. Camera An icon of a digital camera. Caret An icon of a caret arrow. Clock An icon of a clock face. Close An icon of the an X shape. Close Icon An icon used to represent where to interact to collapse or dismiss a component Comment An icon of a speech bubble. Comments An icon of a speech bubble, denoting user comments. Comments An icon of a speech bubble, denoting user comments. Ellipsis An icon of 3 horizontal dots. Envelope An icon of a paper envelope. Facebook An icon of a facebook f logo. Camera An icon of a digital camera. Home An icon of a house. Instagram An icon of the Instagram logo. LinkedIn An icon of the LinkedIn logo. Magnifying Glass An icon of a magnifying glass. Search Icon A magnifying glass icon that is used to represent the function of searching. Menu An icon of 3 horizontal lines. Hamburger Menu Icon An icon used to represent a collapsed menu. Next An icon of an arrow pointing to the right. Notice An explanation mark centred inside a circle. Previous An icon of an arrow pointing to the left. Rating An icon of a star. Tag An icon of a tag. Twitter An icon of the Twitter logo. Video Camera An icon of a video camera shape. Speech Bubble Icon A icon displaying a speech bubble WhatsApp An icon of the WhatsApp logo. Information An icon of an information logo. Plus A mathematical 'plus' symbol. Duration An icon indicating Time. Success Tick An icon of a green tick. Success Tick Timeout An icon of a greyed out success tick. Loading Spinner An icon of a loading spinner. Facebook Messenger An icon of the facebook messenger app logo. Facebook An icon of a facebook f logo. Facebook Messenger An icon of the Twitter app logo. LinkedIn An icon of the LinkedIn logo. WhatsApp Messenger An icon of the Whatsapp messenger app logo. Email An icon of an mail envelope. Copy link A decentered black square over a white square.

Indyref2 result will be ‘too close to call’, says top professor John Curtice

Nicola Sturgeon wants there to be an independence vote between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.
Nicola Sturgeon wants there to be an independence vote between autumn 2018 and spring 2019.

The outcome of a second independence vote is “too close to call”, according to a respected pollster.

John Curtice, a politics professor at Strathclyde University, said the country is split in two over Scotland’s constitutional future.

Another academic James Mitchell, an Edinburgh professor, said the prospect of a Yes vote is “greater than ever before”.

Prof Curtice told The Courier: “At this point it is too close to call. It is 50-50.

“But we are 18 months to two years away from a referendum and there is a lot of campaigning and a lot of water to go under the bridge.”

He predicts a key battleground in the campaign will be the economy, with senior SNP figures pinning much of the 2014 defeat on not convincing voters of the financial case for independence.

Professor John Curtice.
Professor John Curtice

Mr Curtice said: “Unless the economy argument is won then the Yes campaign will struggle because there are not enough people who will be convinced by independence simply on the basis of staying in the EU.”

He added an EU-centric campaign could threaten the unity of the SNP, with an estimated 400,000 Yes voters from 2014 backing Brexit last year.

Prof Mitchell, the co-director of the university’s Academy of Government, said: “I was clear it would be a No vote (in 2014) but this time I couldn’t say.

“The chances of it being Yes are greater than ever before, but I don’t want to predict it.”

Writing in a blog for the UK Constitutional Law Association, Prof Stephen Tierney, director of the Edinburgh Centre for Constitutional Law, said it is possible for the Scottish Government to “halt the process” on indyref2 if UK ministers compromise on the single market, the polls show a decline in independence support or the UK is seen to be securing a good Brexit deal.