The departure of the RAF from Leuchars and the arrival of the army will “stabilise” school rolls in North East Fife, according to Fife Council education service.
Fears had been expressed that school rolls in some areas could plummet.
It emerged last year that the 800 troops now promised was around half of the 1,600 that might have been expected at Leuchars if the RAF was staying, and was 500 fewer than the army numbers promised in 2011.
But Ministry of Defence figures have confirmed that “significantly more” children attached to army families will enter North East Fife than will leave during the transition process.
A number of RAF families are also choosing to stay in the North East Fife area.
Fife Council education officer John McLaughlin told The Courier that around 300 army family children aged to 16 were due to come into the area when the army was at full strength next year.
He said it had originally been thought that between 150 and 200 young people attached to RAF families would be leaving the area.
However, predictions now were that only 100 to 120 RAF family youngsters would be departing. This, he said, reflected the decision of some RAF families to continue living in North East Fife despite a posting to RAF Lossiemouth.
Mr McLaughlin said: “It was originally thought that 50% of pupils at Leuchars Primary and 5% to 10% of pupils at some other schools would be leaving.
“It now looks to be slightly lower than that with a number of RAF families choosing to settle in North East Fife. The majority of those leaving are going to Moray and a significant number are moving south to England.
“But here it means that schools that currently serve RAF Leuchars would expect an increased population when the army arrive. It means that the decline of some schools will be reversed.”
Mr McLaughlin said close working between Fife Council, the RAF and the Moray local authority had been continuing to make the transition smoother for children who will be enrolling in Moray schools.
For those families being relocated to England, however, he said it was “more challenging”, as they would be moving to a new education system where not all pupils would be guaranteed a place at their local school.
Recent figures show that 65% of school children at Leuchars Primary and 40% at Guardbridge Primary had parents working with the RAF.