To EU, or not to EU, that is the question. It’s a question that certainly keeps David Cameron awake at night.
Particularly as the EU sceptics on his backbenches have plagued him on the matter from day one of him being in office.
Because of it, he has committed to a referendum in 2017 and even gone so far to suggest he would be prepared to vote to leave the EU in certain circumstances.
Foreign Secretary Philip Hammond has said that he is prepared to vote for with-drawal, the first UK Foreign Secretary ever to do so.
And it certainly has been an issue which is paving the way to electoral success for the unsavoury Nigel Farage party south of the border.
However, in Scotland we have a different outlook. As a nation, we are traditionally European in our outlook and in favour of EU membership. Obviously not everyone is pro-EU, but on the whole, we are.
Evidence backs it up. Analysis in The Times last week showed that it is entirely feasible that the UK as a whole could vote to exit the EU, but that Scotland would vote to stay.
That’s why, in the first of a series of major speeches by the First Minister in waiting, Nicola Sturgeon announced that Scottish voters should have the power to block an EU exit if they so wished.
The proposal is, when the in/out referendum on EU membership Bill is tabled in the House of Commons after the next UK general election, the SNP will table a simple amendment requiring that all four constituent nations of the UK England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland would have to vote for withdrawal in order for a UK exit to happen. Ms Sturgeon said she would be writing to all parties across the UK seeking to build support for the proposal.
It’s a proposal likely to incense many Tories and as Iain MacWhirter commented be a red rag to a Ukip bull.
I just don’t think there is a fervour in Scotland for Mr Cameron’s in/out EU referendum.
But with every day that passes, it becomes clear that the isolationist, anti-European politics of UKIP is on the rise and it is that which could drag Scotland down a route it doesn’t want to go and shouldn’t go.
With that in mind, it’s a smart, calculated and forward-thinking move by Nicola Sturgeon and if anyone is looking for an indication as to what type of leader she will be, this is it.
It even led to the Spectator’s Fraser Nelson, not normally at the front of the queue to compliment the SNP, to take to twitter on the back of Nicola Sturgeon’s Today interview saying: “It’s a reminder of why she’s one of the UK’s top politicians. Holyrood is more interesting than SW1 nowadays.”
In essence, her proposal is a quadruple lock to protect not just Scotland, but all the family of nations of the UK against the Tory plans to ditch the EU which could have a disastrous impact on our economy given the EU is a crucial trading partner.
In 2012, 45% of our exports were to the EU, estimated at £11.7 billion. Today the EU is the world’s largest single market, com-prising upwards of 500 million consumers.
Membership of the EU and participation in the single market provides Scottish firms with access to more markets to trade with on an equal footing and more potential customers to sell to.
Without it, and particularly because we don’t have the powers of independence, Scotland would have a serious problem.
Nicola’s plan is for a double majority system that you see in some federal states like Canada and Australia. This is a proposal that would be seen as quite normal in federal states.
And given we have been promised a path to greater devolution which is now commonly accepted as Home Rule for Scotland within the United Kingdom, it tees up nicely.
Last night in a crowded Corn Exchange in the capital, the leader in waiting said that if UK is a family of nations, with each member of the family enjoying equal status, like the Westminster Government says, then to be taken out against our wishes would be “democratically indefensible”.
Looking at this on the premise that the UK votes “no”, which I hope it doesn’t, this could play out two ways. If Scotland votes to stay in the EU and UK votes to leave, Scotland could look to remain an EU member.
There is a precedent, Greenland negotiated out while the other parts of Denmark remained part of the union so, hypothetically, if the UK voted to leave it could follow this path. It is perfectly possible for just part of a member state to leave the EU.
The other alternative is that this is the “dramatic change of circumstance” that Alex Salmond has said indicated would create another referendum on the matter.
Perhaps EU membership will be the mandate for Scotland’s independence.
Time will tell.