Vern Cotter feels like a man over the tables in Vegas with his last couple of chips as he was dealt his last card before all have to be shown for the Rugby World Cup next week.
The Scotland head coach is not a gambling man by nature, but he has little choice over this coming weekend. He may need to make a gamble of the health of key centre Alex Dunbar, who was seeing a specialist yesterday for a final opinion on his recovering ACL.
Dunbar is still a month away, Cotter said yesterday, in advance of the third and penultimate warm-up match against Italy at BT Murrayfield, also the last before the final 31 for the tournament has to be revealed.
He’s testing a new back row in Ryan Wilson, John Barclay and David Denton, and a new and pretty exciting – centre combination in Peter Horne and Mark Bennett, maybe the two best “feet” backs in the squad.
But he’s gone to tried and tested for much of the rest. The back three of Stuart Hogg, the ubiquitious and indefatigable Sean Lamont and Tim Visser all scored in Scotland’s last decisive rout of Italy, at Murrayfield two years ago.
Finn Russell and Greig Laidlaw re-link as the half-backs. The all-Edinburgh front row of Al Dickinson, Ross Ford and WP Nel has a comforting look for those who’ve been wincing at the Scottish scrummage in the first two games.
But the “adventure” that started up the mountains in France is almost over, and one can detect relief from one and all, if not Cotter who has to determine who makes it past the cut.
In an attempt to break this day-to-day cycle of training with the axe above their heads, the Scottish team went out around St Andrews and made their own tea on Wednesday, from scratch.
One group caught fish, a second lobster, a third picked fruit at Cairnie Fruit Farm and a fourth cooked it all in the Old Course Hotel kitchens, while a fifth formed a band to entertain their team-mates after dinner.
“I think it’s brought everyone closer together,” said Cotter, who has a pretty impressive poker face for a non-gambler. “But we knew it would be like this (having to make the cut) from the start.
“My job doesn’t allow me to take 50 players; we can only take 31 and that’s what we’ll be focusing on.
“It depends what gamble, if there’s any gamble, with injured players we take, and what’s the best mix. Versatility will be important to have players who can play several positions when we come to the mix.
“We have two games in four days (to start the tournament) and we know we have to have some form of suppleness there. We will absorb those two games and then we have another six days later. There are a lot of scenarios that could unfold.”
Back row and second row are Cotter’s biggest questions, and he’ll get more answers this week with Wilson, suspended until now and Barclay, not considered during the Six Nations, getting their chance in a final examination that will likely pose the tough question of Italy’s talismanic captain Sergio Parisse in direct opposition.
Barclay, as has been documented, did what Cotter asked him to an broadened his game playing for Scarlets. Wilson, meanwhile, seems to have been one of the most impressive in camp in the coach’s eyes as he completed the punishment for his conviction for the infamous “kebab shop” assault in Glasgow two years ago.
“I think Ryan’s the fastest forward we have,” he said. “He’s worked hard and done some good things this summer.
“What happened (the conviction) was outside what we have been doing. It hasn’t even been mentioned. We have been looking at his rugby and what he is bringing to the team with his character. It has been exceptional.
We have been impressed with what he’s done and he gets an opportunity. We need to see that transferred to the paddock; he is in a very competitive position and we need to see if we can get the right mix.”
Tommy Seymour and Sean Maitland are the only two squad members yet to be seen so far as Dunbar was not expected to be ready, Josh Strauss not eligible and Chris Cusiter has been identified as stand-by already but both were only a week away from playing, said Cotter.
It means Sean Lamont is the only player to start all three games so far, the eldest player in the squad, and winning his 96th cap tomorrow.
“Sean doesn’t ask for rests,” said Cotter. “He’s in fine form. Tommy was probably going to get a run but we’ve been advised to give him another week and Sean has definitely put his hand up.
“He doesn’t look like he’s got a few years under his belt, he looks like a young, sprightly man.”
Scotland team (vs Italy, BT Murrayfield, Saturday 3.15 pm)
Stuart Hogg; Sean Lamont, Mark Bennett, Peter Horne (all Glasgow), Tim Visser (Harlequins); Finn Russell (Glasgow), Greig Laidlaw (Gloucester, capt); Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford, WP Nel; Grant Gilchrist (all Edinburgh), Jonny Gray; Ryan Wilson (both Glasgow), John Barclay (Scarlets), David Denton (Edinburgh)
Replacements: Stuart McInally (Edinburgh), Gordon Reid, Jon Welsh, Robert Harley (all Glasgow), Blair Cowan London Irish), Henry Pyrgos (Glasgow), Ruaridh Jackson (Wasps), Matt Scott (Edinburgh).