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Miliband – heads I win, tails you lose

Ed Miliband sits on stage in the main hall of the Labour Party Conference.
Ed Miliband sits on stage in the main hall of the Labour Party Conference.

Poor old Ed Miliband.

There he is at his party conference looking every inch a mug having been beautifully outflanked by David Cameron.

We all know that those who wanted independence lost last Thursday. What no one could foresee was just how devastating the result would be for Labour.

There was a time not that long ago when you could shave a monkey and get it elected on the Labour ticket in Glasgow.

No longer. I’m told that every constituency in the city voted Yes for independence and it was a near run thing in the once Labour heartlands of North and South Lanarkshire.

Given the inroads the SNP have made in and around Glasgow in recent years spearheaded by the SNP’s soon to be leader and our first woman First Minister Nicola Sturgeon, this is perhaps not too much of a surprise.

What did come as right bolt for the Tory blue was David Cameron linking more powers for Scotland with plans to bar Scottish MPs from voting on laws that affect only England.

For Cameron this is no big deal.

He has only one MP north of the border, the Tory brand is still toxic and the prospect of them getting many, if any, more at the General Election next year are pretty thin.

But for Labour it’s a different story altogether. They have 40 MPs in Scotland and Ed Miliband would need every one of them if he is to have any chance of running the country after the next election.

The prospect of his cohort of Scottish MPs not being allowed to vote on English issues could effectively make him a lame duck PM if he ever managed to get into Downing Street.

They couldn’t vote on the NHS, on education, home affairs or justice and, if Scotland gets the new powers promised in panic during the last few days of the referendum campaign, they would also be forced to remain silent on taxation.

Miliband could end up in a situation where he would only have a majority on foreign affairs, defence, some security matters and macroeconomics.

At the weekend Andrew Marr asked him 13 times whether he would back English votes for English laws and he refused to answer.

Poor Ed is damned is he does, damned if he doesn’t.

If he does he would hog tie his party if it manages to squeeze into government at the election, if doesn’t he will be seen as being anti-English by refusing to give English voters the same devolution he wants to give Scotland.

It’s a classic heads I win, tails you lose.

And just imagine if the Scotland decides to return a decent chunk of SNP MPs to Westminster after the General Election.

What would be the SNP’s price for allowing Westminster to run smoothly?

The votes have been counted and the decision made, but the consequences of the referendum have only just begun.