Dundee’s younger than average population could be a major factor in the city having the highest rate of coronavirus infections in Scotland, an expert has suggested.
Leading microbiologist Professor Hugh Pennington says unvaccinated or single-dosed people socialising are likely spreading the virus and warned a competent contact tracing system is needed to drive down figures.
Youthful Dundee slowing vaccine roll-out
Dundee, which has one of the largest proportions of students and people aged 18-29 in Scotland, currently has the highest number of Covid-19 cases per 100,000 people of all local authorities.
The number of first and second doses delivered in the city — at 79% and 57.1% respectively — is lower than the Scottish average and lower than other parts of Tayside.
The first dose figure for eligible people overall in Scotland is 85.6% and for the second it is 61.2%.
Prof Pennington, emeritus professor of bacteriology at Aberdeen University, said: “That’s probably a good part of the explanation [of why cases are higher in Dundee] if there has been a smaller proportion of the population who have had their double dose or even the first dose, as well as if there are more younger people than other parts of Scotland.
“The virus we know is mostly circulating in that younger group.
“I guess there could be an element of ‘well, I know I’m not going to get really sick with this virus so why should I bother?’
“Then there is the natural tendency anyway for younger people to have a much more active social life and to spend more time with strangers, in the best sense of the word.”
Dundee coronavirus cases see huge increase
Dundee’s case rate began to increase rapidly at the end of May and start of June before reaching almost triple the Scottish average.
At least 20,000 ticketless Scottish football fans then travelled to London for Scotland’s Euro 2020 match versus England on June 18 with many partying in the streets.
Shortly after Scotland’s elimination from the tournament, it was revealed around two thirds of the most recent cases were among men aged 15 to 44 — the first time a clear gender split has emerged.
Euro 2020 ‘not the only factor’
Prof Pennington said that men aged under 45 gathering to watch Euro 2020 could have been the trigger for the huge spike in cases across the country recently but believes there are other factors.
He said: “It can’t be as simple as exuberant young men having a wild time in London although that may have started the whole thing off or given it a boost.
“We know that can happen. A few people come back and most of them don’t transmit the virus but some known as super spreaders are very good at transmitting it.
“What’s happened is the virus has been lurking and it has taken off for reasons which might be partly due to the football but not entirely.
“It’s a sort of rerun of what happened in the first wave when there was introductions of 100 or 200 cases mostly from Europe.
“That got the virus seeded and it took off.
“The difference is this time it is happening in people who haven’t had the vaccine or have only had one dose and maybe the Delta variant is helping as well because it spreads more easily than the other variants.”
Elderly and vulnerable still at risk despite vaccine success
The vast majority of vulnerable and elderly have now received both doses of a vaccine, meaning hospital admissions and deaths are much lower than that seen in the two previous waves.
However, the numbers becoming seriously ill have been increasing in recent days as it can take 10 days between someone receiving a positive result and needing hospital treatment.
It was only last week the January record-high of daily cases was broken and it has been surpassed repeatedly since.
Fewer than a third of people testing positive are being interviewed about close contacts within a day.
Professor Pennington said: “I don’t think we should be panicking about the number of positive cases but it would be nice to see them come down.
“One issue is how well is our contact tracing going?
“If there is an outbreak, we need to be able to jump on it and take steps to stop it getting any bigger.”
He added: “We are not finished with the virus yet by any means.
“Clearly the impact in terms of illness and death is going to be much less but that’s not to say we can just go ‘oh well, we can forget about it’ because the positives are younger.
“There will still be an impact on the vulnerable and elderly particularly because the vaccines are around 90% effective.
“Although that is high, it does mean one in 10 in this group who are fully vaccinated could still get very ill.
“There is that risk that the more cases there are, the more likely it is to spill over into this vulnerable group.
“We still have to work hard at test and trace and also mask wearing in an environment where the virus might be getting about.”
Latest Covid-19 cases reported
On Thursday, Dundee recorded 849.8 covid cases per 100,000 people which has jumped up by around 70 in comparison to Wednesday’s 779.5.
Another person has died within 28 days of receiving a positive test for the virus in Dundee, with five Covid deaths recorded in Scotland overall on Thursday.
Dundee had a total of 276 new cases on Thursday, bring the city’s total to 10,162 overall.
Angus had 109 new cases and Perth and Kinross recorded 173, with no new death reported in either area.
In Scotland, 4,234 positive cases have been recorded on Thursday, with 275 people all over the country in hospital with Covid and 16 people in ICU.
Fife currently has eight people in hospital with Covid, with cases on the rise as 409.8 cases per 100,000 on Thursday in comparison to 376.4 on Wednesday.