Scotland will play in pragmatic fashion to get the win they so badly want and feel they deserve against “more powerful” Italy on Saturday, says head coach Vern Cotter.
Forget four tries from backs like in the fixture two years ago, and forget a wide attacking style. Scotland will build a foundation at set phases and wear down the Italians, seeking to exploit their suspect fitness exposed by Ireland and England in the first two games.
Despite losing 73 points in those games the vast majority in the last half hour of both – there was enough in those games from Italy for Cotter to be convinced that focus and minds have to be concentrated.
“They’re a better team,” said the coach. “Their defence is more aggressive, it comes up high and that applies pressure on the opposition attacking plays.
“So it’s important that we approach the game in a very pragmatic manner, that we’re good at set phase, our kicking is good, our defence is good.
“We will have to construct this game piece by piece and very seriously from the beginning, because it’s not going to be the way we would like it to be from the beginning or during the whole game.
“The players have prepared really well this week, they’re very realistic, they’ve seen the footage. They know that Italy are bigger and more powerful.
“We saw what they did to the Irish forward pack; I thought they knocked them around.
“They scored three tries against the English at Twickenham. These things did not go unnoticed. So we’re preparing very seriously for the game.”
Cotter’s only significant choices to make were at 10, where Peter Horne is preferred to Greig Tonks in covering for Finn Russell because of his greater experience, both long-term and recent, and at lock where Tim Swinson comes to replace Richie Gray as Jim Hamilton has a groin strain and the dynamic Ben Toolis can have impact off the bench.
The other two changes see the returns of Tommy Seymour and Euan Murray for Tim Visser who drops out of the squad entirely and Geoff Cross.
“We have trained with all three players in the week,” Cotter said of the fly-half choice. “Peter gets the nod due to his last two performances with Glasgow, his experience and the fact he plays with the two players outside him at club level,
“With Greig we know what he gives us and that’s the possibility to cover number 10 as well as 15 off the bench. Moving Grieg Laidlaw wasn’t even discussed, he’s been playing well at 9 and there was no sense in changing two playmakers.”
The choice of Horne may not just be about expediency given Russell’s suspension and the injuries to Duncan Weir and Ruaridh Jackson, he added.
“This is a big year of rugby and Peter knows it’s going to be an important game for him and for us,” he continued. “ “He’s played well in the last two outings for Glasgow and controlled play.
“He offers another profile and we are all backing him. He is just one of a number of players who can come in, one of the players we need to see in a situation where there’s a bit of pressure on. We need a robust and large group of quality players.”
Swinson returns to lock for Gray, whose season is over following his arm injury against Wales, while Adam Ashe and David Denton will both play for their clubs this weekend and the back row remains unchanged.
Cotter is not concerned by the amount of chances Scotland have passed up in the first two games, even to those who find them worrying familiar.
“We’re not superstitious,” he said. “It’s just talking points that pop up. What is important is that a lot of opportunities are being created, initiative is being taken.
“There is a genuine excitement about going forward and developing, taking advantage of favourable situations on attack and developing favourable situations on attack.
“So they will come. The more we create, the more opportunities we have, the more likely we are to take chances. The process is okay.
“Wales defended well against us. You can’t take away from that, we’re playing against good teams.
“But we want to generate speed into the game. We want to create line breaks. We want to get over the advantage line. We will create situations that will generate points.”
Toolis and fellow Edinburgh forward Hamish Watson are likely to make their debuts off the bench.
Scotland team: Stuart Hogg; Tommy Seymour, Mark Bennett, Alex Dunbar, Sean Lamont; Peter Horne (all Glasgow Warriors), Greig Laidlaw (Gloucester, capt); Alasdair Dickinson, Ross Ford (both Edinburgh Rugby), Euan Murray; Tim Swinson, Jonny Gray; Rob Harley (all Glasgow Warriors), Blair Cowan (London Irish), Johnnie Beattie (Castres Olympique).
Replacements: Fraser Brown, Ryan Grant (both Glasgow Warriors), Ben Tollis, Hamish Watson, Sam Hidalgo-Clyne, Greig Tonks, Matt Scott (all Edinburgh Rugby).